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Signs of inflation from the US as a subordinate to the investment-intensive semiconductor export front

김종찬안보 2021. 5. 21. 15:29
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Semiconductors, where the money supply is concentrated, declined in May (26%, 20 days) from April (29% YoY increase) in actual export performance, leading to increased dependence on the US, which is a sign of inflation from the US.

In April, exports rose 1.2% ($51.2 billion) year-on-year, and imports rose 33.9% ($50.8 billion), which led to the weakening of semiconductors' leadership, led by US-dependent passenger cars and petroleum products.

In May, exports increased (YoY), led by automobiles (146.0%), petroleum products (149.7%), wireless communication devices (64.0%), automobile parts (221.9%), and precision equipment (42.6%), leading to semiconductors (26.0%). %) became the back-end.

In March, the export volume index of the Bank of Korea rose by 3.5% (compared to the same period of the previous year), and the semiconductor export volume index reached the maximum of 11.2%, and rose by 7.1%.

On the other hand, semiconductors (29.0%), which were pushed back by automobile parts (98.4%) petroleum products (94.3%) home appliances (90.6%) passenger cars (75.2%) wireless communication devices (69.2%) ships (14.4%) in April exports After that, in May, the ranking of the increase in automobile parts (221.9%) petroleum products (149.7%) passenger cars (146.0%) wireless communication devices (64.0%) and precision equipment (42.6%) was decided.

 


In the first quarter of large corporations, Naver, who benefited from the non-face-to-face corona, declined from the previous year (292 billion won) to 280.8 billion won, while Kia Motors' operating profit surged 91% and Hyundai Motors 45.5%.

GS Caltex, which had an operating loss of KRW 1 trillion in the first quarter of last year, sharply turned to an operating profit of KRW 630 billion in the first quarter of this year. It foretold inflation.

The surge in crude oil is that West Texas crude oil (WTI) surged 26.01% (48.52 dollars → 61.14 dollars) in one month, and Brent oil was already at 64.34 dollars per barrel on January 21 last year (64.59 dollars) before the coronavirus. Climbed up.

 


In Taiwan, which declared the leadership of semiconductor investment under the Trump regime, semiconductor exports in March surged 33.3% year-on-year to 53.7 billion dollars, leading Taiwan's export growth for the 13th consecutive month.

Amid the confrontation with US-Chinese semiconductors, exports to China and Hong Kong increased by 34% YoY in March and 47% YoY in 1Q.

The U.S. added $1.9 trillion in economic stimulus in March, followed by a $6 trillion budget with increased investment in fiscal year 2021 (from October), inflation due to supply exceeding 40% of fiscal year 2019 expenditure of $4.47 trillion. Entered the Yongin policy.

 


The Institute for Foreign Economic Policy (KIEP) announced that the US economic growth rate surged 3.8 percentage points from 2.8% to 6.6% on the 11th, predicting the intensive dependence of Korean exports on the US.

KIEP forecasts Europe's growth rate rose 0.7%p to 4.4%, Japan's forecast rose 1%p to 3%, and China's 0.2%p increase to 8.6%.

 


In May, export growth (YoY) was led by the US (87.3%) in automobile parts (221.9%) passenger cars (146.0%) and petroleum products (149.7%), followed by the European Union (78.1) and Japan (30.6%). Leading countries were China (25.2%) and the Middle East (-14.0%).

Imports were led by crude oil (198.8%) and passenger cars (59.4%), followed by semiconductors (17.8%) and machinery (15.5%) growth, followed by the Middle East (146.8%) US (47.0%) Australia (32.8%) and Japan (25.2%). China (13.1%) is behind the country, Vietnam (20.5%) and the European Union (15.7%) of imported passenger cars, and the dominance of the US dollar has increased.

 


As the government's strategy to support semiconductors continues, individual investors net purchases of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix for 22.6.9 billion won and 3,263 trillion won, respectively, from the beginning of this year to the 14th.

From April 26th to May 14th, the'KRX Semiconductor Index' (9.76%) and'KRX Information Technology Index' (8.45%) fell for three weeks, and the share price fell at Samsung Electronics (3.26%) and SK (10.57%).

For three weeks, foreigners net sold Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix for KRW 3,766.7 billion and KRW 9602 billion, respectively, and semiconductor equipment maker TCK (-23.39%) Wonik IPS (-9.73%) DB Hitech (-9.03%) Reno Industries (-7.02%) Goyoung (-9.35%) and Hanmi Semiconductor (-8.11%) fell continuously.