As a supply chain bottleneck in Asian producing countries due to the vaccine gap, inflation has become a trend in the mid-six-month outlook.
In an interview with CNBC on the 14th, BlackRock, the largest asset management company in the United States, said, “The economy in some parts of Asia is slowing due to the mutation in the corona delta. This will exacerbate the supply chain shortage problem,” he said. “In the next six months, as we digest the spread of the delta mutation and the rate of vaccination, the inflation rate will continue, though not at a rapid rate.”
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview with CNBC on the 15th that "inflation will surge for a while, but will ease over time." I will not say that it is a short-lived phenomenon of about a month.” He said, “We will witness the medium-term inflation rate come back down to the normal level.”
In an interview with BlackRock Chairman Larry Pink, who opposed the Fed's 'short-term outlook' for inflation, he said, "It will not be a temporary phenomenon." The gap is widening between countries that have matched it.” He pointed out the bottleneck in international production caused by the vaccine gap in Asian manufacturing countries.
The US Federal Reserve Chairman said it was a 'short-term phenomenon' at a hearing in the House of Representatives on the 14th, but at a Senate bank hearing on the 15th he said, "This inflation is bigger than we expected." "He said.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, announced by the US Department of Labor on the 13th, rose by 5.4% (compared to the same month of the previous year), the largest increase in 13 years since the 2008 financial crisis.
The June CPI forecast was Bloomberg News (4.9%) and Dow Jones (5.0%).
The sharpest increase in inflation is that used car prices rose 10.5% MoM and 45% MoM and gasoline prices rose 44.2% MoM.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during a congressional hearing that the surge in used car prices was "temporary evidence".
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Ministry of Labor in June rose 1.0% from the previous month and 7.3% from the same month of the previous year.
China announced on the 15th that its GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 7.9% (year-on-year), which plunged from the growth rate in the first quarter (18.3%).
"It is a sign that China's steep V-shaped recovery has reached its peak," Bloomberg News said in a statement released by China's National Bureau of Statistics.
As for China's second quarter growth forecast, the People's Bank of China predicted 8% growth, Reuters reported 8.1%, and Bloomberg predicted 8.0%.
China's industrial production (8.3%) for June, announced on the same day, fell from 8.8% in the previous month, and retail sales increased by 12.1% year-on-year, a slower rate of increase than the previous month (12.4%).
China's statistics show that the 12.6% increase in fixed asset investment in the second quarter plunged to half of the 25.6% increase in the first quarter, while real estate development investment rose 15.0%.
Nomura Securities predicted that China's growth rate would drop to 6.4% in the third quarter and 5.3% in the fourth quarter as demand for Chinese products decreases in the second half of the second half of the recovery phase in advanced economies.
The Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol announced on the 15th that the interest rate would be frozen at 0.5% and said, "I think this year's economic growth rate will generally meet the May forecast of 4%." I don't think it will have much of an impact."
On the 15th, Goldman Sachs lowered its growth forecast for Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, which have low vaccination rates, by more than 1 percentage point (p) from the previous one, and lowered their forecasts for Singapore and Thailand by a small margin.
Goldman Sachs said in a report on the 12th about 'inflation risk', "The tail risk (extreme risk outbreak), which is the occurrence of a 'balanced bear' phenomenon in which stocks and bonds fall together, is also increasing. The stock-and-bond mixed fund may suffer significant losses due to simultaneous sell-off in the market, but excluding tail risk, the overall financial market will continue to flow stably.”