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Stagflation warning lights on inflation slowdown in US economic expansion

김종찬안보 2021. 7. 30. 13:47
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A stagflation warning was issued after the US cut government aid in the second quarter, confirming inflation and slowing growth in unemployment claims.

The U.S. Department of Labor's weekly unemployment insurance claims were announced at 400,000 on the 29th, and the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that 20,000 more than the 380,000 analysts expected.

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on the 29th that the second quarter GDP grew by 6.5% on a year-over-year basis, and the WSJ said it was significantly lower than the 8.4% increase expected by the WSJ.

In its announcement, the U.S. Department of Commerce lowered the previously announced growth rate of 6.4% to 6.3%, predicting a slowdown in economic expansion.

In the announcement of the Ministry of Commerce, a sudden brake appeared in the sharp rise in automobile and housing prices, which were the main indicators of the economic rebound.

In the first quarter, the 13.3% increase in residential investment in the booming housing prices fell to 9.8% in the second quarter.

The US automobile market, which led to a surge in Korean automobile exports, plunged from a 50% increase in the first quarter to a 9.9% increase in the second quarter in the durable goods consumption index.

Consumption of non-durable goods in the U.S. is declining, rising 12.6% from 15.9% in the first quarter.

US inflation rose 6.4% in the second quarter of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, up from a 3.8% rise in the first quarter.

The PCE price index, the source of excluding food and energy, rose 6.1% in the second quarter and rose 2.7% in the first quarter, more than doubling in the second quarter.

The slowing growth in the US appears to be attributable to a 1.5% decline in government spending and total investment in the second quarter, particularly a sharp 5.0% decline in federal spending and a 0.8% increase in local government spending alone.

Reuters reported on the 29th that online prices in the United States rose 2.3% annually (CPI) this year, unlike the previous year's decline.

In the analysis of 1 trillion online shopping sites handling products, the telecoms cited Adobe report. In the case of home appliances, it declined by an average of 2.6% since 2015, but rose by 2.3% in June, and clothing decreased by 1% before the corona epidemic. It said it increased by 16.2%.

Market Watch reported on the 25th that "the possibility of stagflation due to low economic growth amid high unemployment and high inflation in the United States in the 1970s appeared on the radar of experts."

President Moon Jae-in instructed Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki to “discuss together with the financial authorities and ministries to expand the overall budget for next year,” at a meeting of Ministers of Minsaeng and Economy on the 29th.