Industrial production appears to have fallen into the construction effect as the trend of rising temporarily and then falling due to the government's supply expansion and economic stimulus is repeated.
All industrial production declined in January (-0.5%) of this year, but showed an upward trend for two consecutive months in February (2.0%) and March (0.9%). After declining in April (-1.3%) and May (-0.2%), it fell for two consecutive months from a temporary increase in June (1.6%) to July (-0.6%) and August (-0.2%).
In August, facility investment fell by -5.1%, the biggest decline since May last year (-5.7%), during the early stages of the coronavirus.
The decrease in consumption was the largest in three months since the third wave of May (-1.8%) in May as retail sales fell 0.8% MoM in August.
According to the statistics of the National Statistical Office, all three sectors decreased in August, including production, consumption, and investment, and in May, production decreased by 0.2%, consumption by 1.8%, and facility investment by -2.6%.
Facility investment fell sharply from -2.6% in May to -5.1% in August, and semiconductor inventories surged 15.5% MoM in August.
The crowding-out effect (驅逐效果) is a side effect that the expansion of government spending to stimulate domestic demand shrinks private investment and raises interest rates. ' is showing.
Mining and industrial production fell 0.7% in August from the previous month, semiconductor (3.5%) production increased but inventories increased to 15.5%, and household electrical equipment (-5.1%) and metal processing (-5.0%) production fell sharply Manufacturing production increased in semiconductors and automobiles, but decreased in electrical equipment and metal processing, resulting in a decrease of 0.4% (MoM). Manufacturing shipments fell 2.5% MoM, while domestic shipments and export shipments fell 2.0% and 3.1%, respectively, resulting in a sharp decline in exports.
Manufacturing inventories rose sharply in semiconductors (15.5%), petroleum refining (20.3%), and primary metals (8.4%), up 4.9% overall.
The manufacturing inventory/shipment ratio was 112.3%, an increase of 8.0%p from the previous month, the largest increase since May of last year (8.8%p), the early stage of the corona virus. Equipment (-7.7%) investment led the decline, falling to -5.1% (Mom) in August, returning to May of last year (-5.7%).
Retail sales, which were concentrated on government stimulus measures, fell 0.8% from the previous month, the largest since May (-1.8%) during the third wave of the coronavirus.
The decrease in consumption increased in semi-durable goods (1.8%, clothing), but sales of non-durable goods (-2.0%, food and beverage, etc.) and durable goods (-0.1%, passenger cars, etc.) decreased more.
The decrease in consumption was attributed to a decrease in sales at supermarkets and general stores (-6.0%, compared to the same month of the previous year), a decrease in sales at large marts (-4.2%), and an increase in sales at specialty retail stores (+6.7%), department stores (+14.8%) and automobile and fuel retail stores (+3.0%). The polarization has become clearer. The National Statistical Office believes that “semiconductor inventories have increased a lot, but it is not because they are not sold or piled up, but because of the time lag between production and export. It is not a situation to be concerned about, and overall there is not much inventory,” he said on the 30th.