The Korea Development Institute (KDI) predicted a ‘downward expansion of the economy’ and private training institutes predicted a sharp decline in exports next year, while the Bank of Korea issued a contradictory diagnosis on the 7th, saying ‘a solid recovery will continue until next year’ in response to the National Assembly.
The Hana Financial Management Research Institute released a report on the 7th that “the growth rate of exports fell from 22.2% this year to 2.0% next year”.
The Bank of Korea (BOK) said in a written response to the National Assembly on the 7th, "The domestic economy is expected to continue a solid recovery trend until next year as exports and facility investment continue to flow solidly, while consumption gradually improves."
On the 7th, KDI reported in ‘October Economic Trends’ that “production is declining and employment is shrinking in major face-to-face industries. In the manufacturing industry, the trend of improvement is maintained mainly in semiconductors, but the production of some industries such as automobiles has contracted due to the recent uncertainty in the supply and demand of intermediate goods, and the downside risks are expanding, such as the decline in corporate sentiment indicators,” he said.
Hana Financial Management Research Institute predicted 'next year's economic growth rate of 2.8%' in the '2022 Economic and Financial Market Prospects' report on the 7th, and said, "Growth momentum will gradually weaken in consideration of the reduction in countermeasures against COVID-19 and the slowdown in export economy." “The growth rate of exports (based on customs clearance) is expected to plunge from 22.2% this year to 2.0% next year,” he said.
In the 'Inflation Fear' report on the 6th, the IMF predicted that emerging and developing countries would rise to 6.8% this fall and 4% next year, and that “a sharp rise in housing prices and prolonged supply shortages in developed and developing countries, and continued food supply in emerging countries “Inflationary pressures and currency depreciation can keep inflation high for a longer period of time,” he said.
For the three trading days until the 6th, the KOSPI plunged 5.23% and the KOSDAQ index 8.06%, respectively. 600 billion won → 392.7 trillion won), a sharp drop of 150 trillion won.