Regarding the housing market, Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said ‘stable’, presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung said ‘down’, and Blue House chief Park Soo-hyun said ‘confirmation of downward stability’ and ‘rising’ of the National Institute of Land, Infrastructure and Transport.
On the 4th, Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Noh Hyeong-wook said, “Sales are increasing, but trading volume is decreasing. "I think it's a sign that the housing market is going to be stable," the National Assembly answered.
At a briefing in October of last year, Minister Roh said that it was "stable", saying that it is "more stable than the 5.1% increase in the metropolitan area next year" by the Korea Institute for Land and Infrastructure.
Democratic presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung told KBS on the 3rd, "I want you to know that we are in a situation where we are worrying about not making a hard landing, because we have already recovered liquidity, interest rates are rising, and housing prices are falling in outlying areas."
Park Soo-hyun, chief executive, said on the 4th, "Isn't it on a downward and stable trend?" On the 4th, when asked on MBC Radio, "Are you sure that house prices are starting to come down?" he said, "I have thoughts that are close to certainty."
Minister Roh said at the National Assembly on the same day, "There may be temporary fluctuations in regions and timing, but I think that a downward trend is inevitable because all the variables that determine house prices are down."
Candidate Lee said in an interview with KBS 'News 9' that day, "The market is short, so we will supply as much as necessary, but it is very likely that we are already passing the peak of fluctuations."
Minister Roh responded to a reporter's inquiry a week ago (December 27), "Some experts and research institutes predict that house prices will continue to rise next year" about house prices in 2022 at a '2022 business plan briefing'. Market indicators are very strong indications that the market is stabilizing. In terms of trading price, domestic sentiment, and trading volume, it is an indicator of a very strong downward stability. Even looking at the mid- to long-term forecast figures after next year, the trend of a downward trend in house prices seems unavoidable,” he said.
The reporters continued, "Minister Roh said at a press conference in October that the National Institute of Land, Infrastructure and Transport predicted a 5.1% increase in house prices in the metropolitan area next year, and that it is likely to move toward a more stable direction. “Is the forecast of the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements still valid as the government’s forecast?”, and Kim Soo-sang, head of the Housing and Urban Affairs Office, answered, “The rate of change estimated by the National Institute of Land, Infrastructure and Transport last time was used for internal reference in the process of estimating tax revenue. It is true that private professional organizations also put out forecasts for next year's house price growth rate, which in common are significantly slower than this year's growth rate. As domestic household loan management has continued in a situation where the supply plan continues and monetary policy continues around the world, we expect that the period of house price decline will gradually accelerate,” he said.
The Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements, a policy agency directly under the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, said in the Land Issue Report 'Factors Influencing Housing Price Changes and Contribution' on December 24 last year, "After the housing market overheated from the second half of 2019 to the first half of 2021 (omitted) after the transition to a low interest rate system, He said, "The contribution of interest rates to the rise in house prices was the highest." He said, "In consideration of the fact that interest rates have a great effect on house prices, information on house sales prices should be included in the consumer price index."
At the end of last year, the National Statistical Office announced that housing was excluded from the consumer price index as it is a speculative capital good.
In a survey conducted by 50 experts at the end of last year on the 4th, Maeil Business News reported that “41 out of 50 experts (82%) of Seoul’s housing prices predicted that the uptrend would continue in 2022.” A rise of more than 10%, a rise of 24 (48%) by less than 5%, and an increase of 15 (30%) of more than 5% to less than 10% are expected, and only four experts diagnosed that there would be a price drop.”
In December of last year, the Housing Industry Research Institute said in a report titled ‘Housing Market Prospects for 2022’ that “the national housing sale price will rise by 2.5% and the jeonse price by 3.5%,” and “Seoul will rise by 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively.” .