The KRW/USD rate rose 9.2% in January and the consumer price rose 3.6% YoY, 2.5 times higher, suggesting a 4% rise in February prices.
The U.S. trade deficit rose 26.9% year-on-year in January to a record $859.1 billion.
Korea's import surge is expected to increase inflation and trade deficits due to economic stimulus strengthening policies, as imports of crude oil, gas and coal in January of $15.95 billion surged 2.3 times from $6.89 billion in January of the previous year.
The Bank of Korea predicted that this year's exports will be "weaker than last year" as the base effect diminishes after the Corona crisis, and "maintaining a better level than the long-term trend" in an 'issue note' on the 3rd.
The BOK’s export diagnosis was similar to the previous year in the analysis of the export level against the trend of six variables such as US-China-Euro GDP, global trade and DRAM sales, and Dubai oil price, and compared to the five-year average before Corona. On the other hand, imports are on the rise. The won-dollar exchange rate averaged 1099.03 won in January last year and 1195.30 won in January, up 9.2% (100.8 won).
The import price index was 127.11 in December last year, a 30% increase from 98.02 in the same period of the previous year (December 2020).
Since October last year, when the government's export stimulus was concentrated, the rate of increase in import prices continued to rise in the 30% range.
Last year, the proportion of imported products reached 30%, and the supply of imports from remanufacturing increased by 14.7% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year, showing an increase for the fifth consecutive year, the National Statistical Office announced on the 9th as 'the fourth quarter of 2021 and annual domestic supply trends in manufacturing'.
France's largest bank, Société Generale (SG), reported on the 9th that "if the 10-year US yield reaches 2%, the dollar-yen will rise to 116 yen and rise to 120 yen in a few weeks." "Prices of crude oil and other commodities In response, the yen will continue to weaken and will weaken further."
On the morning of the 9th, the dollar-yen exchange rate was around 115.49 yen, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield was 1.96%, and the U.S. Treasury yield was rising due to the rate hike trend.