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Stealth omicron surge and ‘close to peak’ prediction error amplified

김종찬안보 2022. 3. 16. 15:28
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The detection rate of 'Stealth Omicron', which is more contagious than Omicron, was 26.3% as of the 14th, a 3.4%p increase from 22.9% the previous week, and surged to 45.7% in overseas imports.
The stealth omicron (BA.2) detection rate in Korea is on the rise from the 3rd week of February to the 1st week of March by 4.9→10.3→22.9→26.3%.
According to CNBC on the 15th, the number of confirmed infections due to stealth omicron in Europe is increasing again, and the UK has a surge of 70,000 to 80,000 from 30,000 a day, Germany is 250,000, France 180,000, Switzerland 20,000, Italy 80,000, The Netherlands 50,000. The increase in the number of children under the age of 11 in the unvaccinated group, which the government has pointed out to the media as a concern, was 104,978 on the 14th, 26.2% of the total, and 26% of the total on the 10th, a week ago, is stagnant.
The government's high-risk group ahead of the major headquarters meeting on the 16th and the elderly over the age of 60, who are subject to the hospital bed problem, accounted for 16.8% of the 67,238 people on that day.
Son Yeong-rae, head of the social strategy division at the Central Accident Resolving Headquarters, said on the 16th, "Based on a prediction model with the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the peak of this epidemic will be next week at the latest at the latest. If we can respond within the expected range, it is expected that this crisis will be the last and biggest crisis.” According to the city, 217,746 people (49.3%) in the metropolitan area and 223,677 people (50.7%) in the non-metropolitan area decreased from a total of 439,305 people.”
The JoongAng Ilbo said, “As of 9 pm the day before, the total number of new confirmed cases in each local government is over 440,000. Because of this, it was predicted that the number of new confirmed cases on the 16th would approach 500,000.
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said on the same day that the media reported that the number of confirmed cases exceeded 440,000 by citing a private site the day before, saying, “The site repeatedly counted the number of confirmed cases and confirmed cases from other provinces in the process of collecting information on confirmed cases, or that it was due to information errors. seen,” he said.
According to Bang Daebon, the number of new confirmed cases in Seoul today was 81,395, but the city of Seoul counted 95,234 as of 9 p.m. the previous day, reducing the final number of people by 14,000.
BA.2 was named 'stealth' Omicron because it evaded detection of Omicron in gene amplification (PCR) test.
The government, which had decided to ease quarantine guidelines just before the new epidemic, held a major headquarters meeting presided over by Prime Minister Kim Bu-gyeom on the 16th.

At the meeting, Prime Minister Kim said, "I decided to review the plan to adjust the level of the Corona 19 infectious disease designated as 'Class 1'," and heralded a plan to reduce government subsidies at the level of tuberculosis, chickenpox, and measles, the second-grade infectious diseases.
At a briefing on the same day, Head of Strategy Team Son said, "The fatality rate is very important. The fatality rate has been lower than 0.1% for the last four weeks. The short-term fatality rate is similar to the current seasonal flu."

The Infection Prevention and Control Act “is for the purpose of contributing to the promotion and maintenance of public health in order to prevent and manage outbreaks”, but the 'Disaster Safety Act', which is the basis of the central headquarters of the command, is "disaster and safety management matters for the preservation of the national land and protection of people's lives, bodies and properties" For the purpose of regulation,” the government prioritized 'economic growth first' and 'priority protection of government facilities' in quarantine.