n March, expected inflation rose by 0.2%, and the current living conditions and household income outlook remained the same, but the current economic judgment and future economic prospects fell, the living conditions outlook worsened, and the consumption expenditure outlook rose.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on the 29th that Korea's consumer price growth rate for this year would be 3.1%, a 0.9%p surge from 2.2% in October of last year, five months ago, and the economic growth rate would decrease by 0.3%p in January to continue at 3.0%.
In the US Treasury bond market on the 28th, the yield on the 5-year bond rose to 2.56% and the yield on the 30-year bond fell to 2.55%, the first inversion since 2006, two years before the financial crisis.
The Bank of Korea's Consumer Trend Index (CSI, 100) for March showed that the current economic judgment (71·-4p) and the future economic outlook (87·-4p) fell, and the consumption expenditure forecast (114·+4p) rose. (90) and Household Income Prospects (99) reflected the same high-inflation and low-growth structure.
Despite the stagnant income from the government's consumer stimulus stimulus package, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCSI) was 103.2, 0.1p higher than in February, and a sharp decline of 1.3p in February.
Bloomberg said on the 27th that the price of various resources, such as food, fuel and metal, could soar to an unsustainable level, causing global consumers to cut spending and plunge into a recession.
"There is no question that the war in Ukraine will keep inflation high for a long time," ING economist James Smith told Bloomberg.
According to JP Morgan's forecast, "If oil prices continue for a long time, there is a possibility that oil demand will collapse." "World oil demand will decrease by 1.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter and 500,000 barrels a day in the third quarter, respectively, and most of the demand will decrease." will be in Europe.”
Regarding the weakness of the Japanese yen, Nihon Keizai reported on the 22nd that it is selling the yen and buying the dollar as the interest rate gap between the US and Japan widening and Japan's current account deficit due to the rise in crude oil and raw material prices is added to the US Federal Reserve's rate hike. .
The yen, which was strong during the international crisis, turned weak from 114-115 yen per dollar on the 24th of last month at the beginning of the Ukraine war, depreciating to the mid-120 yen level per dollar.
The share price of Samsung Electronics, which was directly linked to the damage to IT demand in the Ukraine war, collapsed below 70,000, which is a sign that it will lead to a “demand collapse” in Korea.
Goldman Sachs downgraded its investment rating on the 28th by downgrading its three-year earnings forecast for US semiconductor companies, and downgraded its investment ratings on Microchip Technology, Qorvo, and Teradyne from 'buy' to 'neutral'. .
Bloomberg said on the 27th that the best expected outcome for the Fed is a growing "growth recession".
An economic slowdown is an economic situation in which the growth rate before the apparent recession falls short of the potential growth rate and the unemployment rate rises.
The Biden administration announced on the same day that it would reduce the fiscal deficit by about $1 trillion over 10 years, announcing a budget for fiscal year 2023 (starting from October this year) of $5.8 trillion (about 7102 trillion won).
President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol expanded the power-based peace strategy of the Moon Jae-in Trump regime by increasing armaments by more than 7%, and revealed the strategy to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue through an arms race, heralding the strengthening of military expansion due to the budget deficit.