From the current account deficit in November of last year and the current account deficit in the second half, the Bank of Korea forecasts that exports will decrease by 3.7% in the first half of this year, and major industries such as semiconductors, petrochemicals, and steel are expected to experience larger deficits, leading to greater exchange rate fluctuations.
The Bank of Korea announced the current account deficit for November on the 10th, and forecasted a 3.7% decrease in exports in the first half of this year, with only 0.7% increase in product exports compared to the previous year. .
According to the Bank of Korea data, last year's current account balance turned from a surplus of $883.4 million in October to a deficit of $621.7 million in November, the third deficit following April and August.
In November of last year, the service account deficit was $340 million, widening the deficit by $70 million from the same month last year.
In November of last year, the container freight rate index (SCFI) fell 69.5% due to a large drop in export freight rates, and transportation income (3.33 billion dollars) decreased by 1.25 billion dollars from the same month last year.
Between July and November of last year, the current account deficit was $410 million, and the current account deficit is likely to widen in December as well.
The current account deficit was led by a 28.6% decrease in semiconductor exports, with exports in November (52.32 billion dollars) falling by 270 million dollars from the previous month and by 7.31 billion dollars from the same month last year.
The decline in semiconductors (-28.6%), steel products (-11.3%), and chemical products (-16%) based on customs clearance exports did not catch up with the increase in passenger cars (32%) and petroleum products (22.1%).
On the other hand, the increase in imports was $53.88 billion in November last year, a decrease of $190 million from the previous month, but an increase of $320 million compared to the same month last year.
Samsung Electronics' operating profit in the fourth quarter of last year was tentatively tallied at 4.3 trillion won, a 69% drop from the same period last year. SK Hynix's estimated operating loss for the fourth quarter of last year was 1,114.5 billion won.
In the oil refining industry, SK Innovation's fourth quarter operating loss is estimated at 176.1 billion won, and S-oil's operating loss is estimated at 82.6 billion won.
Estimated operating loss for the 4th quarter of Lotte Chemical in the petrochemical industry was 92.5 billion won, a loss for three consecutive quarters.
The 4th quarter operating profit of POSCO Holdings, a steelmaker, is estimated at 550 billion won, down 76% from the same period last year.
On the 3rd, Daishin Securities predicted an operating loss of 69.5 billion won for the first quarter of this year for Samsung Electronics' semiconductor division.
Hi Investment & Securities presented an operating loss forecast of 28 billion won for the first quarter of Samsung Electronics' semiconductor division.
Samsung Electronics' semiconductor division has not had an operating loss since the fourth quarter of 2008 during the financial crisis.
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