Hamas leader's killing 'intensifies' conflict between Israel, Hezbollah-Iran

Hamas leader's killing 'intensifies' conflict between Israel, Hezbollah-Iran

Experts have diagnosed that Israel's killing of Hamas' leader will intensify the conflict between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran, and that Hamas will only make a 'tactical change'.
A New York Times Jerusalem correspondent who analyzed the situation after the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar said on the 18th, "Israel could claim victory and agree to a ceasefire, and the new Hamas leadership could be more open to compromise, but neither side is likely to change course immediately."
Reuters reported on the 18th that Iran's mission to the United Nations said, "Iran has shown no signs of changing its support for this killing," and that "the spirit of resistance will be strengthened after Sinwar's death."
Reuters reported that Hezbollah's response was a "new and escalating shift in the confrontation with Israel." “Sinwar’s killing is a ‘big blow’ to Hamas, but not fatal because everyone is replaceable,”

Lebanese news channel LBCI reported on the 17th that Khaled Mashaal, the head of the overseas organization who led negotiations in Qatar after Sinwar's death, has taken over as head, citing sources.
The source said that "Hamas leadership has informed Turkish, Qatari, and Egyptian authorities of Sinwar's death."
The new head, Mashaal, is 68 years old and served as political director from 1996 to 2017 and is the manager of the overseas organization.
Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in the United States, told the AP on Tuesday. “With so many leaders and commanders dead, it’s unclear who can fill his shoes at this point.”

The Middle East is now a place where the fate of the Gaza war has long been intertwined with Shinwar and Prime Minister Netanyahu, and where the conflict with Hezbollah and Iran has grown, negotiations and containment are likely to be more difficult after Shinwar’s removal.
“Sinwar’s death will be a decisive blow to Hamas, but it won’t necessarily change Hamas’ main negotiating position,” Fuad Koufash, a Palestinian analyst close to Hamas, told the Times. “Hamas will continue to operate on the same principles unless they are hardened.”

He continued, “Hamas is a group built on individuals, so if you lose someone of Shinwar’s caliber, it’s not always easy to quickly find someone of his caliber,” adding, “Whoever replaces this leader will continue his ideological line.”

Ibrahim Dalalshah, director of the Horizon Center, a political research group in Ramallah, West Bank, told the Times that “the remaining Hamas leadership is unlikely to back down from its call for a permanent ceasefire or accept a permanent Israeli occupation of parts of Gaza.”

“They could find a weakened, more pragmatic leadership in Hamas, and they could make some tactical compromises, but not on strategic issues,” he said. He went on to say that the new leadership’s “pragmatic tactics” could be “more flexible in the hostage negotiations, perhaps agreeing to exchange fewer Palestinian prisoners for more hostages,” and that “they could tolerate a temporary Israeli military presence in Gaza as long as Israel nominally promises a permanent withdrawal in the future, and they could make some tactical compromises, but not on strategic issues.”
Israel’s far-right war minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said in a statement that he would resign if the war ended prematurely, and that “they are now in a position to intensify military pressure and step on the neck of the terrorist organization until it is completely defeated.”

In response, Netanyahu took an ambiguous stance, issuing two contradictory statements.
One was a statement after a phone call with President Biden, saying that “there is an opportunity to speed up the release of the hostages,” while the other was a video address made earlier, saying that “the evil today has been dealt a serious blow.” But the task before us is not over yet, we will fight together, and with God’s help, we will win together,” he said, indicating the “continuation of the war.”

Based on this, the New York Times said, “Regardless of Hamas and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s response, their actions in Gaza will leave the broader war between Israel and Hamas’s regional allies still unresolved,” and “Even if the war in Gaza ends, it will not immediately curb the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, where Israel’s ground invasion continues, or the conflict with Iran.”

Khaled El-Ghindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based strategic think tank, said, “While Prime Minister Netanyahu has been strengthening his military presence in northern Gaza in recent weeks, there has been little sign that he is seeking an end to the conflict,” and “Sinwar’s death is likely to give the group’s political leadership in Qatar more flexibility and control.”

El-Ghindy said of Hamas’ new leadership, “After months of “These negotiating leaders, including Khalil al-Hayya and Khaled Mashaal, who are Hamas’ top leaders, could accelerate the progress of the negotiations, unlike Sinwar, who was hiding in Gaza, as they are more sensitive to pressure from Qatar, which was a key mediator,” he said.

“Israel should use Sinwar’s death to present conditions for ending the war on two fronts,” Ziora Eiland, a former head of Israel’s National Security Council (NSC), told Israel’s Channel 12 news. “The opportunity to end the war completely, not just in Lebanon, is entirely in our hands,” he said.

“Netanyahu, do not bury the hostages. Now go to the negotiators and the Israeli people and present a new Israeli plan,” said Ainab Zangauker, a relative of a hostage held in Gaza, in a social media post.