Iran War, Asian Arms Race: Japan’s ‘Long-Range Missiles,’ Lee Jae-myung’s ‘Nuclear Weapons’
The New York Times reported that amidst the arms race in Asia—where the U.S. relocated weapons stationed in Asia to the Middle East during the Iran war—Japan is accelerating the development of its own ‘long-range missiles,’ while South Korea is demonstrating its commitment to developing ‘nuclear weapons.’
On the 12th, the NYT stated, “It is highly likely that many nations will compete to further develop their defense industry capabilities,” adding, “Japan is developing its own long-range missile system. South Korea received U.S. approval last October to develop its first nuclear-powered attack submarine, which some experts view as a step toward the development of future nuclear weapons.”
The NYT further reported that President Lee Jae-myung said, “This war clearly demonstrates the need for greater self-reliance,” adding, “If we depend on others, there comes a time when that dependence collapses. We must always think about what to do without external support.”
President Lee Jae-myung delivered a speech at his New Year’s press conference on January 21, stating, “Ideally, the nuclear issue is the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula where North Korea’s nuclear weapons disappear. There are none in the South, and there is no intention to possess them in the future. If only the North were free of nuclear weapons, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula would be achieved.”
He continued, “The result is that nuclear weapons continue to increase. Nuclear weapons are constantly growing. (...) Therefore, my view is that we should approach this pragmatically. Let us acknowledge reality. However, let us not give up on the ideal. Then what is the reality? It keeps increasing.”
As weapons and air defenses are shifted from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East, it has become evident that the U.S. war machine lacks depth compared to expectations, and U.S. military production figures are sending chills down the spines of many U.S. partners.
The New York Times reported that "Patriot interceptor missiles can cost up to $4 million each," noting that "the U.S. produced approximately 600 units in 2025 alone, and according to Bloomberg estimates, more than 1,000 were used in less than two weeks of war."
Regarding the expansion of the U.S. defense industry, an agreement signed by the Trump administration with Lockheed Martin in January, prior to the outbreak of war, aims to triple Patriot system production by 2030.
The New York Times reported, “For many countries that agreed to increase military spending on U.S. weapons at the urging of the Trump administration, a war with Iran feels like a flashing red light, warning that what they purchased may not be delivered soon.”
The article noted, “A Japanese government investigation revealed that 118 orders for U.S. weapons worth approximately $7.2 billion in January had not been delivered for at least five years since the contracts were signed, and there are concerns in Taiwan that a worsening war could weaken deterrence against the U.S. due to ammunition shortages, making it difficult for the Taiwanese government to justify a larger defense budget to purchase more U.S. weapons.”
China resumed island construction in the Paracel Islands off the coast of Vietnam in the South China Sea late last year.
The NYT stated, “Satellite imagery from the Open Source Center showed that dredging operations have intensified in recent weeks,” adding that “about 20 Chinese vessels equipped with cranes and construction equipment were building a new outpost on Antelope Reef.”
Japan is located near Taiwan and is in a very precarious position regarding the Taiwan dispute with China. Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior researcher at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo, told the NYT that more than 90% of Japan's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz and that "a situation where economic and military crises are combined would be a nightmare." He added, "Japan recognizes that anything can happen under President Trump. We must consider the worst-case scenario."
Before the war with Iran began, U.S. military commanders redeployed aircraft carrier strike groups from the South China Sea to the Middle East.
Subsequently, the U.S. Department of Defense is moving sophisticated air defense systems across Asia this week to reinforce defenses against Iranian drones and rockets.
The NYT reported, "The redeployed weapons include Patriot missiles and interceptors operated by South Korea's THAAD system," noting that "the THAAD system is the only Asian ally possessing the advanced missile defense system deployed by the Department of Defense to counter the increasing missile threat from North Korea.
According to U.S. officials, this is the first time interceptor missiles are being moved, and projectiles are also expected to be transported once diplomatic and logistical details are coordinated." With the war in Iran having been ongoing for only two weeks, the movement of advanced U.S. weaponry has emerged in Asia, which U.S. leaders have called "our priority front." Officials and analysts told the NYT that “this war will undermine U.S. influence, aid China’s argument for the decline of the U.S., and accelerate the arms race among middle powers.”
Eli Ratner, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security under the Biden administration, told the NYT, “Withdrawing air defenses from South Korea sends a terrible signal at a time when major concerns are already growing in Seoul regarding the Trump administration’s unstable commitment to Asia.”
The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system is the elite arsenal of the U.S. arsenal.
Each battery typically includes launchers mounted on multiple trucks and precision radar systems capable of detecting and engaging interceptors at various altitudes.
There are at least five such systems in the Middle East, and in Asia, THAAD launchers have been deployed in Guam and South Korea, clashing decisively with China during the deployment process in South Korea. China has abruptly suspended fighter jet sorties around Taiwan.
The New York Times reported, “Taiwan has become accustomed to the ‘drumbeat’ of Chinese military aircraft flying close by almost every day, yet no Chinese military planes were recorded near Taiwan for 12 out of the past 13 days.” The newspaper noted, “The only exception was Sunday (the 7th), when daily data released by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense indicated that two planes were spotted approaching the island.”
The suspension of these pressure patrol flights on Taiwan is extremely unusual. Ben Lewis, founder of PLATracker, a website that collects data from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense regarding the mystery of “where the planes went,” told the NYT, “It is a stark departure from previous behavior,” adding, “This hiatus in activity is the longest since 2021.”
In 2021, there was a three-week period with only five total flights, some of which coincided with tropical storms engulfing Taiwan, whereas this time the weather was stable. China's week-long National People's Congress concluded on the 11th, and according to PLATracker, there were typically few flights during that period in the past.
"This decline is even more pronounced compared to the increase in Chinese military aircraft over the past few years," said Mr. Lewis. "Taiwan recorded an average of about 10 Chinese military flights per day last year, increasing to dozens on some days."
Some analysts have offered several possible explanations, suggesting that China may be preparing for the scheduled summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping.
Ou Shifu, Deputy Director of the Institute for Defense and Security Studies in Taipei, told the NYT that with the Trump administration already at war with Iran, "Xi Jinping wants Trump not to think that Beijing is exacerbating the problem."
He added, "Beijing wants the Xi-Trump summit to proceed smoothly and wants to maintain its image as a major power on par with the United States." K. Tristan Tang, a researcher at the National Bureau of Asian Studies, told the NYT, “It could be that the Chinese Air Force is intentionally changing its training routines,” adding, “The phenomenon we are seeing now has actually been developing for more than half a year.” He noted, “There is a pattern where there are more days without flights recently compared to last year, and the difference is that the recent decline has become much more pronounced.”
With President Trump’s scheduled visit to China just three weeks away, the U.S. has not sent out invitations regarding the agenda or accompanying delegations.
The NYT reported on the 11th, “With less than three weeks remaining for a summit between the two leaders to extend the trade truce between the two countries, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over the scene.” It added, “Chinese officials are frustrated that the White House is not providing details on President Trump’s agenda or what agreements the two sides might reach, and U.S. business leaders do not know if they have been invited to accompany the U.S. President.”
The New York Times continued, “Concerns are being raised within the United States regarding the summit the White House announced would be held from March 31 to April 2,” noting that “Sean Stein, chairman of the U.S.-China Business Council, stated on the 10th that the White House has not yet invited any business leaders to travel with him.” The article suggested that some of these questions could be resolved later this week when U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meet in Paris.
At a press conference last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated, “This year is a very important year for China and the United States. I have spoken about the relationship. The agenda for high-level exchanges is already being discussed.” Imposing that the Trump administration should not take any actions that could provoke China and jeopardize the talks, he said that both sides “must manage existing risks and eliminate unnecessary confusion.”
President Trump postponed the $13 billion arms sale to Taiwan, approved by Congress, on the 27th of last month. U.S. officials revealed on the 27th of last month that the Trump administration postponed the announcement of an arms sale package to Taiwan in April to avoid offending Chinese leader President Xi Jinping.
On the other hand, the Trump administration devised a secret strategy to announce this after the summit with President Xi.
Reuters reported on the 12th, citing administration sources, that "it was conducted secretly prior to his visit to Beijing to meet with President Xi Jinping from the 31st to April 2nd, and could be announced after his return to the United States."
The New York Times reported, “The arms sale, including air defense missiles, is currently in the advance phase, and senior Republican and Democratic lawmakers approved it in January after the State Department sent the package for informal review,” adding, “However, officials said the sale package has been left idle at the State Department since then.”
According to a State Department official, administration officials told some personnel involved in approving the sale that the White House instructed agencies to halt proceedings to ensure a successful summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping.
The total value of the arms sale package to Taiwan amounts to approximately $13 billion, which is larger than the $11 billion sale announced by the Trump administration in December. The hardline conservative Republican administration adhered to the "Six Guarantees" strategy during the Reagan era in 1982, which did not notify China regarding arms sales to Taiwan, and the Trump administration restored this, going through only a formal notification process to Congress in this arms sale decision.
The NYT reported that "this Six Guarantees strategy was sent by the Reagan administration to the President of Taiwan in 1982, and generally, the U.S. government does not consult with China before selling weapons to Taiwan," adding that "the package included interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense launchers, anti-drone equipment, and NASAMS, another missile-based air defense system, as well as small arms and maintenance and heavy equipment."
The Financial Times was the first to report on the drafting of the arms package, and the Wall Street Journal subsequently reported on U.S. officials hesitating to push it forward.
The NYT stated, “Generally, the State Department sends proposed arms packages to Senate and House committees for review by key lawmakers from both parties,” adding, “Once the State Department grants unofficial approval, it immediately announces the sale publicly and sends the package to Congress for formal approval.”
Republican President Reagan’s “Six Assurances Strategy,” a 1980s Cold War strategy designed to strengthen the system in response to Democratic President Carter’s “severing ties with Taiwan” following the establishment of diplomatic relations with China on January 1, 1999, involved then-Assistant Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleberger instructing James Lilley,
Director of the U.S. Institute for Taiwan (an unofficial U.S. mission to Taiwan), to request a meeting with Taiwanese President Chiang Ching-kuo. In the “Talking Point” telegram sent to Lilley via a meeting telegram approved by President Reagan, Eagleberger delivered a “Assurance Document” containing details of what the U.S. government had not agreed to in negotiations with China.
The statements in this document, delivered to President Chiang Kai-shek on July 14, 1982, are now recorded in U.S. Congressional documents as the U.S. "Six Assurances" (Six Assurances) toward Taiwan.
The first of the assurances was, "We have not agreed to a date for the end of arms sales to Taiwan," the second was, "We have not agreed to prior consultation on arms sales to [Taiwan]," the third was, "We have not agreed to a mediating role for the United States," the fourth was, "We have not agreed to amend the Taiwan Relations Act," the fifth was, "We have not taken any position on the sovereignty of Taiwan," and the sixth was, "The People's Republic of China has never urged Taiwan to negotiate with the People's Republic of China; but we can assure you that we will never do so."
See <Trump’s Whip-top Diplomacy: Lee Jae-myung, ‘Removal of North Korean Nuclear Weapons is Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula’, January 23, 2026>
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Six Guarantees, Arms Race, Taiwan, US-China Summit, Iran War, Lee Jae-myung, Japan, Missile, Trump, Nuclear Weapons