The Fed's low interest rate controls were out of sync and the global stock market went down.
Japanese 10-year Treasury yields rose to the highest in five years in the morning of the 26th, and the US 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 1.6% on the 25th, leading the Korean stock market decline on the 26th, surpassing the New York and Japanese stock markets.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose 0.5 percentage points in February, and the 5-year yield exceeded 0.75%, leading the stock market decline. On the 26th, the Seoul foreign exchange market's won-dollar exchange rate surged 12.7 won from the previous day and opened at 1120.5 won per dollar.
As the stock market fell on the 23rd due to the rising interest rate, the US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Senate Financial Committee on the 24th that “the US economic recovery is incomplete” and “will maintain the current level of zero interest rates for the time being.” It may take three years or more to reach it.”
Bloomberg warned Goldman Sachs that a 36bp (1bp=0.01%p) rise in bond yield would shock the stock market. It was reported on the 25th that higher than 36bp became a reality.
'Money Today' said on the 26th, “Inflation and rising interest rates due to the economic recovery may give a temporary shock to the market, but it is not an absolute bad news,” said “Money Today” about the domestic decline. It is predicted that sector differentiation will proceed, centered on rising interest rates and sectors that benefit from inflation.”
Money Today stated that Kiwoom Securities' "The rise in US interest rates is not a result of austerity, but a result of the normalization of the economy through vaccines and stimulus measures, so the possibility of a large adjustment in the index is not high." Interest rates are still lower than before the coronavirus, and the possibility of a tightening of the Fed is not great given the condition of many long-term unemployed people, and Samsung Securities' diagnosis of . Following this, Daishin Securities announced on the basis of .
The Bank of Korea announced on the 26th that the interest rate on the bank's household loan rose for 5 consecutive months due to 1700 trillion won in household debt, and that the interest rate on mortgage loans was the highest in a year and a half.
Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol said in an announcement on the previous day (25th) that the standard interest rate will be frozen by 0.5%, saying, "The monetary policy will continue until the economy shows a stable recovery."
The Bank of Korea's aggregate interest rate rose 0.10 percentage points from 2.15% to 2.25% in January, and the mortgage loan rose 0.04 percentage points from the previous month to 2.63%, the highest since July 2019 (2.64%). In lending, the interest rate for group loans rose 0.14 percentage points to 2.85%, the highest since January last year (2.94%).
In a report on the 23rd, Goldman Sachs Asia-Pacific stock strategist raised the KOSPI outlook from 3200 to 3700, stating that “low interest rates are supporting the market” and “recovering the global economy and maintaining a positive market for the Korean market” in a report on the 23rd.
<Additional> On this day, individual investors defended the stock market with a net purchase of KRW 3.80 trillion, but foreigners recorded a record-high net selling of KRW 2.8 trillion, and institutions such as pension funds also net sold KRW 1 trillion, and KOSPI fell 2.80% from the previous trading day. did.