October exports, Reuters ‘worsening’, Korean media ‘booming’, IMF ‘increased risk’ media manipulation
While foreign media diagnosed the Korean government’s October export announcement as ‘worsening’, Korean media collectively reported it as ‘highest boom’, the IMF warned of ‘China’s economic slowdown’ in its ‘increased risk to the Asian economy’ report, and foreign media continuously issued ‘warnings of the weakening won’, showing typical media manipulation.
Regarding the October export announcement on the 1st, Reuters’ headline was <Korean export growth rate records 7-month low amid uncertainty over US presidential election>, while Chosun Ilbo’s <Power of semiconductors and automobiles… October exports this year record high> KBS’s <October exports ‘plus’ for 13 consecutive months… semiconductor and automobile effects> are the complete opposites.
Reuters said, “The trade data is consistent with a survey that found South Korea’s factory activity fell for a second straight month in October, with output falling by the most in 16 months.” “Semiconductor exports rose 40.3% to $12.5 billion in October, down from a record high of $13.6 billion in September. Auto sales rose 5.5%, but petroleum products fell 34.9% as oil prices fell.”
Reuters continued, “Imports rose 1.7% to $54.35 billion in October, weaker than economists’ expectations of a 2% increase and a 2.2% increase in September.” “The monthly trade surplus with China was $3.17 billion, less than half the previous month’s $6.66 billion.”
The Chosun Ilbo reported, “This October, exports increased by 4.6% year-on-year to $57.52 billion, the largest October ever, continuing the upward trend for the 13th consecutive month.” “Accordingly, the cumulative export amount from January to October is $566.3 billion (tentative), and this year’s annual exports are expected to record the largest since 2022 ($683.5 billion). This is because the semiconductor market, which hit our exports last year, is booming this year.”
Reuters reported on the 2nd in the article <October Korea Factory Activity, Output Decrease Again, PMI Announcement> that “After showing an unexpected contraction in the 2nd quarter, the Korean economy barely grew in the 3rd quarter due to weakening exports, increasing the possibility of additional stimulus measures to support growth,” and “South Korea’s factory activity contracted for the second consecutive month in October, with output decreasing by the largest amount in 16 months, according to an S&P Global survey released on the 1st, showing signs of a recent slowdown in global demand,” as a ‘confirmation of slowdown.’
South Korea’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell below the 50 line that separates expansion and contraction for the first time in five months in September, recording 48.3, the lowest reading since June 2023, indicating the start of an economic downturn, and recorded 48.3 in October.
Reuters reported on the same day that, based on the S&P Global PMI index, South Korea's manufacturing sector said, "According to the latest survey, output fell at the fastest pace since June 2023, and companies said orders were down due to the economic slowdown," and that "the decline in new orders eased slightly from the previous month."
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported on the 1st that China's economy is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2024, slowing from last year's 5.2% growth and further declining to 4.5% next year.
Since the Chinese government's growth target for 2024 is 5.0% this year, the IMF report said, "The slowdown in China's economy is expected to intensify."
The IMF report said, "China's continued downward price pressures could hit sectors in neighboring countries with similar export structures, 'causing trade tensions,'" and "risks to the Asian economy have increased due to heightened trade tensions, a slowdown in China's real estate sector, and the possibility of additional market turmoil."
The Japanese government on the 1st lowered its GDP growth rate forecast for this fiscal year, citing the weak exports as a delay in the fragile economic recovery, and lowered its inflation-adjusted GDP growth rate forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2025 from 0.9% presented in July to 0.7%.
Regarding the Japanese economic slowdown, Reuters reported on the 2nd that “the government announces its economic growth rate forecast in January and then revises it around July, but it is rare for a revision to be made at this time of year,” and “it emphasizes that the pressure on the economy is increasing due to cooling global demand and weak domestic consumption.”
The Bank of Korea’s third quarter earnings announcement already showed a decline in exports, and although October exports confirmed this as a “decline in growth rate,” Korean media outlets have all dramatized it as “the biggest export boom in October.”
While foreign media outlets independently interpret economic indicators by comparing them with ‘market expectations’ based on their own surveys before government agencies’ announcements, Korean media outlets have the side effect of focusing their reporting on ‘amplifying the unilateral and intentional biased interpretations of the government agencies that announce them.’
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of Korea intentionally avoided the ‘smallest increase since March’ in its announcement of $57.52 billion in exports in October, up 4.6% from a year ago, and concealed the ‘sudden decline’ from the ‘7.5% increase in September’ to the ‘slowdown’ compared to the previous month, and the media collectively fabricated the ‘month-on-month slowdown in exports’ by intentionally amplifying the government’s manipulation of the ‘October export performance compared to the previous year’, which is completely meaningless in economic indicators.
Reuters compared the October performance based on the ‘expected 6.9% increase in October’ in its own opinion poll and diagnosed that “exports have also slowed for three consecutive months.”