Trump's 'Ukraine Deal Expansion' Biden's ATACMS 'Release' Zelensky's 'Failure to Locate North Korean Forces'
The British defense research institute diagnosed that President Biden lifted restrictions on the intermediate-range ATACMS missiles at the end of his term in order to 'expand the Ukraine End-of-War Deal' under the Trump administration, and the Ukrainian Intelligence Service failed to identify the location of North Korean troops.
Regarding the opportunity for Ukraine to strike the Russian mainland with the ATCMS missiles suddenly provided by the US two months before his term, the British defense research institute stated that "although the window of opportunity is narrowing, the impact could be more political" and "from President Trump's transactional perspective, it is a 'good investment'." Matthew Savill, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute, a British defense research institute, told The New York Times on the 18th that the Ukrainians will have to convince the next U.S. administration that they are still worth supporting, and that extending the lifting of missile launch restrictions would be “a ‘good investment’ from President Trump’s transactional perspective.”
“On a political level, this move is a political strategy that energizes Ukrainians and provides a window of opportunity to show that Ukrainians are still viable and worthy of support as Trump prepares to take office,” Seville told the AP.
The Kremlin announced the Biden administration’s decision on Monday as a major step toward a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
U.S. officials and analysts said they do not expect the policy shift to substantially change the course of the war, and pro-Kremlin commentators said the shift was “a political decision designed to narrow President Trump’s negotiating options,” the Times reported.
A commander involved in the operation told the Times, speaking anonymously, that “Ukrainian intelligence did not have a clear picture of the locations of North Korean troop garrisons and military bases, as well as the missile targets,” suggesting that Ukraine’s missile launches would be difficult to execute before Trump’s inauguration.
“This means that the United States and the European NATO countries are at war with Russia,” Putin told a government meeting in St. Petersburg.
"It is clear that the Biden administration is entrusting the Trump team with not only the issue of resolving the Ukraine conflict, but also the bigger issue of preventing a global standoff," Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the Russian parliament's lower house foreign affairs committee, said, according to the New York Times.
The Biden administration agreed last year to supply Ukraine with hundreds of ATACMS missiles for use on Ukrainian territory, including the Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula, and Ukrainian forces have since used many of them in attacks on military targets in Crimea.
"It is unclear how many missiles remain in Ukraine's arsenal," the New York Times said. "Ukraine has been frustrated for months by the White House's refusal to authorize long-range strikes on Russian territory, and the addition of up to 10,000 North Korean troops to Moscow's war effort this fall appears to have persuaded the White House to change its stance.
Their arrival has been met with consternation by the United States and European countries, who fear the war will escalate by drawing Russian allies directly into the ground." Some military strategists believe that Ukraine’s long-range missile strikes against North Korean forces stationed in Russia could “dissuade North Korea from sending more troops to Russia,” the Times reported.
But what could be a further obstacle to Ukraine’s newfound freedom to launch a deeper attack is President-elect Trump’s impending arrival in the White House in January.
It is unclear how long the Biden administration’s approach to Ukraine will last after Trump takes office, and the incoming president has said he is skeptical of continued U.S. aid to Ukraine and wants a quick resolution to the war.
The White House’s shift in position is the lifting of restrictions on Ukraine’s use of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, a ballistic missile system.
The missiles, which have a range of 190 miles, are designed to strike targets where Ukraine could weaken Russian forces beyond the reach of artillery and short-range rockets, such as garrisons, logistics hubs and munitions depots.
“The question is how much ammunition do we have and how do we get that ammunition,” a commander who is not authorized to discuss military operations publicly told the Times, speaking on condition of anonymity. “The critical question is the ability of Ukrainian intelligence to locate North Korean troop concentrations and other targets,” he said, adding that Ukrainian intelligence did not know the exact locations of North Korean troops and logistical bases.
The Pentagon previously gave three reasons for not authorizing the use of ATACMS to attack inside Russia.
The first is the concern that Russia would escalate hostilities by stepping up covert operations against Ukraine’s Western allies.
The second is the lack of a sufficient stockpile of ATACMS missiles.
The third is the claim that the Russian military has moved its most valuable military assets out of range.
The Times said of the third point, “Ukrainians and military analysts say that even if Russia moved its most valuable bombers and fighters, there are still strategically important targets that ATACMS can hit.” The move was made against the backdrop of Ukraine’s grim military setbacks on the front lines of the war, which has seen months of dismal military action.
The New York Times reported that “Ukraine, short of troops, is rotating its troops to reinforce the areas it has occupied, leaving the areas it has withdrawn vulnerable, and Russia is advancing a mile a day in the southern Donetsk region, the fastest pace since the start of the war.”
“Far from the front lines, Russia has been striking Ukrainian military and civilian targets with drone and missile fires almost nightly, and a Russian ballistic missile struck a residential area in Odessa in broad daylight on the 18th, setting a building ablaze and killing at least 10 people and wounding 43,” local authorities said.
Patrick Bury, senior associate professor of security studies at the University of Bath in the U.K., told the AP that the policy change “came too late to have a major strategic effect, and the ultimate effect would be to slow down the tempo of the Russian offensive that is currently underway,” adding that “Ukraine could strike targets such as Kursk, logistics hubs, or command posts.”
“Ukraine would need to stockpile a large number of ATACMS,” Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, told the AP, adding that the stockpile “would be too small to warrant an immediate attack.”
“The arrival of the North Korean troops in Russia is a signal of a change in policy,” Gleb Boloski, an analyst at the CBA Initiative Center, a Ukrainian think tank, told the AP. “This is a signal from the Biden administration to North Korea and Russia that the decision to involve North Korean troops has crossed a red line.”
The ATACMS, made by Lockheed Martin, a major US defense contractor and the largest campaign donor to the Trump Republican camp, is a short-range ballistic missile that can hit targets 190 miles away with a warhead containing about 375 pounds of explosives depending on the model. It has the advantage of flying much higher into the atmosphere than artillery rockets and falling at high speed due to gravity to return to the ground.
The US provided the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) at the beginning of the Ukrainian War, and the ATACMS missile could be launched from this mobile launcher and the older M270 launchers sent by Britain and Germany, which was a major issue throughout the war.
The ATACMS missile was developed in the 1980s to destroy high-value Soviet targets deep in enemy territory, and was made as a ‘short-range guided weapon’ that relied on ‘dumb bombs’ and ‘unguided munitions’ as a warhead for mass destruction. The US Department of Defense has two versions of ATACMS, one is a cluster bomb and the other is a single explosive.
Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022, the question of whether to equip Ukraine with ATACMS has been the most sensitive topic of negotiation, and from the beginning, it has been a strategic topic of expanding psychological and information warfare as President Zelensky appealed to Biden for support, and it has been maximized in the ‘location information warfare psychological warfare’ against the ‘deployment of North Korean troops’ attempted by Russia.
The New York Times reported that “some US Department of Defense officials opposed providing these missiles to Ukraine, citing ‘limited supplies,’” and that “President Zelensky insisted that this type of weapon was critical to Russia’s ability to launch a broader counteroffensive, and that there were no plans to attack Russian cities or target civilians.”
The US military officially fired about 30 ATACMs during Operation Desert Storm in 1991, using them to attack intermediate-range ballistic missile launchers and surface-to-air missile sites in Iraq. The first-generation ATACMS cluster bomb version flew about 100 miles and dropped 950 cluster bombs on a target.
The U.S. Army fired tactical missiles carrying more than 400 bombs during Operation Iraqi Freedom, and mainly during the early days of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
The New York Times reported on the 17th that “the Pentagon later limited the use of cluster bombs because they often failed, leaving battlefield debris littered with dangerous destruction that killed or injured soldiers and civilians.” “The U.S. Army modified many of its early ATACMS in the 2000s, replacing the bombs with single-explosive warheads.”
The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement on the 19th, "Last night at 3:25 pm, the enemy attacked facilities in the Bryansk region with six ballistic missiles. According to confirmed data, American ATACMS operational-tactical missiles were used," and "Russian air defense systems shot down five missiles and damaged one, the fragments of which fell on military facilities," Reuters reported.
The Pentagon has contracted Lockheed Martin for more than $520 million to replace thousands of guided artillery rockets sent to Ukraine since June 1, 2022, starting in October. The contract, signed from October 21 to November 2, is for the purchase of guided multiple rocket launcher munitions, which are mobile launchers for guided artillery rockets called High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).
The HIMARS rockets are said to have destroyed dozens of Russian command centers and ammunition and supply depots in Ukraine, and the munitions are called Gimmlers, an acronym for GMLRS.