Trump Attacks Iranian Missile Bases, Israel and Saudi Arabia Declare War 'Non-Executive'
With US President Trump's plan to attack Iran narrowed to an attack on Iranian missile sites, and the Israeli government and Saudi Crown Prince arriving at the White House early next week, it appears war is out of the question.
The New York Times, which comprehensively analyzed intelligence threatening Trump's continued attack, reported on the 29th that, regarding the attack scenario, "White House officials met earlier this week with Israeli military intelligence chief Major General Shlomi Binder, who was briefed on Iran-related intelligence, and Saudi Arabia's Defense Minister, Crown Prince Khalid bin Salman, is also scheduled to visit Washington this week to meet with senior Trump administration officials." They added, "US officials said these and other options are still being discussed among Trump's core advisors, and there is no agreement on the ultimate objectives of any military action." Regarding Trump's third option, which Israel favors, the New York Times reported, "According to Israeli intelligence, Iran has significantly recovered its ballistic missile program since it was severely damaged by Israel in the June 12 War last year, and Israel wants the United States to join in re-attacking Iran's ballistic missile program."
The New York Times also reported, "Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the head of a newly established agency overseeing Iran's military operations, stated on the 28th that 'any U.S. attack would be considered an act of war, and Iran would respond strongly, targeting Tel Aviv.' This is why Israeli officials are deeply concerned about Iran's missile program, which can strike civilian and military targets throughout Israel."
President Trump said on social media on the 28th that he hopes Iran will "quickly come to the negotiating table" to reach a fair and equitable deal—a deal without nuclear weapons—that benefits all parties. "Time is running out. This is a critical issue!"
President Trump previously posted the following on Truth Social: A massive naval fleet is heading to Iran. It moves with speed, power, passion, and purpose. This fleet is a larger one, led by the great aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, and it is larger than the one deployed to Venezuela. Like Venezuela, it is ready, willing, and capable to carry out its mission swiftly and violently if necessary.
I hope Iran will quickly "come to the negotiating table" and negotiate a fair and equitable deal—a deal to ban nuclear weapons. A deal that benefits all parties. Time is running out. Seriously!
As I've said to Iran before, make a deal! They didn't, and there was a massive destruction of Iran called "Operation Midnight Hammer." The next attack will be far more devastating!
CNN reported early on the morning of the 28th that President Trump was considering "a massive new strike" against Iranian leaders, government agencies, and nuclear facilities. CNN, citing anonymous officials, reported that "Trump has not yet made a final decision on whether to launch an attack."
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate on the 28th that he expects managing regime change in Iran to be "far more complex" than in Venezuela.
A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the Times that "President Trump and his senior advisers understand that a follow-up operation against Iran would be far more difficult than what the United States did in Venezuela." "The challenges and risks to U.S. forces would be far greater, and Iran is a far more formidable adversary than Venezuela."
For this reason, Trump is still considering various options for attacking Iran, and officials told the Times that "all of these options could be implemented simultaneously or in some combination."
One of the most dangerous operations, initially conceived, would involve covertly deploying U.S. special forces to destroy or severely damage parts of Iran's nuclear program that were not already damaged by the U.S. bombing campaign in June. In preparation for this, the U.S. military has long trained for special missions, such as infiltrating countries like Iran and attacking nuclear facilities or other high-value targets.
While President Trump has repeatedly claimed that Iran's nuclear program has been "totally destroyed," his national security strategy, released last fall, took a more cautious stance, assessing that the June strike "significantly weakened Iran's nuclear program."
Trump has previously expressed reservations about deploying ground troops, repeatedly citing President Jimmy Carter's failed 1980 rescue attempt to free 52 American hostages held in Iran as a cautionary tale.
In an interview with The New York Times two weeks ago, Trump compared the successful operation in Venezuela to "President Carter crashing helicopters everywhere," describing it as a "failure."
Officials who discussed Iran with Trump told The Times that the failure of that operation (the Carter helicopter explosion) "made a deep impression on the president." The New York Times noted that President Trump's plan to eliminate Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, "was based on his past involvement in planning the assassination of President Trump, which is one of the motivations behind Trump's attacks on Iranian leaders," and that "federal prosecutors in New York said last year that Iranian assassination plotters discussed plans to kill Trump just before his re-election."
A second option for Trump's team is to launch a series of attacks on military and other leadership targets to create chaos and create conditions for Iranian security forces or other forces to eliminate the 86-year-old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
However, the Times noted, "in that scenario, it's unclear who would run the country if the Supreme Leader were removed, and whether the successor would be more open to cooperation with the United States." At a press conference following the EU ministerial meeting on the 29th, EU foreign policy chief Kaya Kallas said, "By designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, Iran is fanning the flames of 'all-out war.'" She added, "As for attacks, I don't think the region needs a new war." Kallas formally called on the United States to refrain from attacking Iran.
Kallas said blacklisting the IRGC, an elite military unit reporting directly to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, would put "greater pressure" on the Islamic regime, which has brutally suppressed protests this month.
The Trump administration has blacklisted Khamenei, and in response, the EU has called on the United States to "refrain from attacking the IRGC" by designating it as a terrorist organization, excluding its leader. White House Press Secretary Anna Kelly said in a statement on the 29th, "As Commander-in-Chief of the world's most powerful military, President Trump has many options regarding Iran. While the President hopes no action is necessary, the Iranian regime must reach a deal before it's too late."
Six months after the US bombing of Iran, with no signs of Iran developing nuclear weapons, Trump's second US military operation has proven far more destabilizing than the first, for a number of reasons, including its scope and objectives.
In another analysis, the New York Times stated, "First and foremost, there is a belief within the White House that the recent protests and economic downturn in Iran have so weakened the Iranian government that US or Israeli military action could accelerate its collapse, but the outcome is uncertain."
The Times concluded, "Israeli intelligence agencies have assessed that a retaliatory strike using Iranian ballistic missiles could be concentrated on major Israeli cities. This latest assessment follows Iran's attacks last year, which primarily targeted military and government targets." The Times concluded that Trump's attack capability was "unfeasible."
The New York Times reported, "Israel's intelligence assessment of the state of Iran's nuclear program is largely consistent with that of U.S. intelligence agencies. They generally concluded that last year's military campaign delayed Iran's nuclear project by six months to a year, and that a far greater concern in Israel is Iran's efforts to upgrade its arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, which could inflict significant damage on Israel in the event of another conflict."
During last year's conflict between Israel and Iran, Israel successfully intercepted and destroyed more than 80 percent of Iranian missiles. However, this time, Israeli intelligence officials calculated that Israel would be more vulnerable if Iran resumed its missile attacks, lacking interceptors capable of defending Israeli cities, the Times reported.
The analysis concluded, "President Trump's recent public statements about Iran's nuclear efforts were cryptic, but they gave the impression that he believed Iran was not intimidated by last year's U.S. attack."