Mossad’s Plan to ‘Incite Uprising’ in Iran; Netanyahu and Trump’s Plan to Start War ‘Fails’

Mossad’s Plan to ‘Incite Uprising’ in Iran; Netanyahu and Trump’s Plan to Start War ‘Fails’

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It appears that the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad succeeded in planning to ‘incite an uprising’ within Iran, leading Prime Minister Netanyahu to trigger a war, with U.S. President Trump cooperating to initiate surprise bombings.

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The operation to start a civil war against Kurdish rebels, in which Mossad intervened to incite internal unrest in Iran, failed as the CIA withdrew support due to strong opposition from Taki, exposing a shortage of missiles in Israel’s multi-layered defense system.

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On the 22nd, four senior reporters from The New York Times interviewed 12 officials and reported, “While the U.S. and Israel were preparing for war with Iran, the head of Israel’s diplomatic intelligence agency, Mossad, took the plan to Prime Minister Netanyahu and presented the proposal to senior Trump administration officials during a visit to Washington in mid-January.”

They added, “Mossad Chief David Barnea stated that if war began, Mossad missions could rally Iranian opposition within days, triggering riots and other rebel activities that could lead to the collapse of the Iranian government.” At the start of the war, President Trump announced to the Iranians, "Take control of the government: you will take over the country," and added, "You must first escape from the bombing."

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Prime Minister Netanyahu ultimately adopted this plan, and the war broke out.

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The New York Times reported, "Despite skepticism regarding feasibility among senior U.S. officials and some Israeli intelligence officials, both Netanyahu and President Trump appeared to be optimistic." The newspaper noted, "They believed that killing Iranian leaders early in the conflict and following a series of intelligence operations to facilitate regime change would lead to a massive uprising that could quickly end the war."

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However, the result was that three weeks after the war began, no Iranian uprising had yet occurred; U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments concluded that while the theocratic Iranian government had weakened, it remained intact, and widespread fear of the Iranian military and police had dampened the possibility of an initial uprising within Iran or an attempt by national militias from outside the country to cross the border.

The New York Times reported, “The belief that Israel and the United States could help instigate a widespread rebellion was a fundamental flaw in the war preparations that had spread across the Middle East,” adding that “instead of internal collapse, the Iranian government persisted and escalated the conflict, launching attacks and counterattacks on military bases, cities, ships, and vulnerable oil and gas facilities around the Persian Gulf.”

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These findings are based on interviews with more than 12 current and former U.S., Israeli, and other foreign officials who spoke on condition of anonymity regarding national security and intelligence issues during the war.

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Following President Trump’s first “People of Iran take control of the government” speech, U.S. officials have largely given up on publicly discussing the possibility of a rebellion within Iran, although some still harbor hope that such an uprising could become a reality.

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Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to attempt to prolong the war, stating that U.S. and Israeli air operations will be supported by ground forces. At a press conference on the 19th of last week, Netanyahu stated, "You cannot carry out a revolution in the air," adding, "There must be a ground element as well. There are various possibilities for this ground component, and I will not share all of them with you."

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Prime Minister Netanyahu continued, "It is still too early to judge whether the Iranian people will take to the streets using the conditions we create," stating, "I hope that is the case. We are working toward that goal, but ultimately, only they will decide."

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Time on Israel reported on the 20th under the headline "Netanyahu Script: 'We must be stronger than the barbarians, otherwise they will break down our doors and destroy our society'" with the subheading, "'History, unfortunately, proves that Jesus Christ holds no superiority over Genghis Khan,' Prime Minister said at the war's first English press conference that the U.S. and Israel 'must act now' against the Iranian regime."

On the 19th, he held his first press conference in English since the outbreak of the war in Iran in Jerusalem. Making brief remarks in Hebrew, he stated, "After 20 days of operation, Iran today has neither uranium enrichment nor the capability to produce ballistic missiles," followed by an English statement and Q&A session.

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Netanyahu continued, "Under President Trump's visionary leadership, the United States and Israel are acting together in Iran with strong determination and unprecedented strength. Operation [Roaring] Ryan was designed to eliminate the existential threat posed by the Ayatollah regime, which has waged war against the United States, Israel, and the Iranian people for 47 years."

He added, "Our goals are threefold. First, to eliminate the nuclear threat. Second, to eliminate the ballistic missile threat. Third, to create the conditions for the Iranian people to hold onto their freedom and control their destiny."

The New York Times reported, “However, behind the scenes, Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed frustration that Mossad’s promise to instigate an uprising in Iran had not materialized,” adding, “At a security conference held a few days after the war began, the Prime Minister conveyed that President Trump could end the war at any time and expressed anger that Mossad’s operations had not yet borne fruit.”

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Just before the war began, current and former U.S. and Israeli officials helped Prime Minister Netanyahu persuade President Trump to make the collapse of the Iranian government a realistic goal by citing Mossad’s optimism regarding the possibility of an Iranian uprising.

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Many senior U.S. officials and intelligence analysts from the Israel Defense Forces’ military intelligence agency, AMAN, viewed plans for a large-scale Mossad-led uprising during the conflict skeptically.

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U.S. military leaders informed President Trump that Iranians would not come out to protest while the U.S. and Israel dropped bombs.

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U.S. intelligence authorities assessed the likelihood of a large-scale uprising threatening the theocratic government as low and suspected that U.S.-Israeli attacks would trigger some form of civil war. Nate Swanson, a former State Department and White House official who led negotiations with Iran until July on the team of Steve Witkoff—Trump’s longtime friend and special envoy for Iran—told the New York Times that in his years of studying Iran policy, he has never seen a "serious plan" within the U.S. government to incite an uprising in Iran.

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Swanson, currently affiliated with the Atlantic Council, told the NYT, "Many protesters are not coming out into the streets because they are afraid of being shot. They are going to be massacred. That is one thing. But the second is that there are a significant number of people who want a better life, and they are currently alienated. They don't like the regime, but they don't want to die opposing it. That 60% will stay home."

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He added, "There are still fervent anti-regime figures, but they are unarmed and are not dragging the majority of the population out into the streets."

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President Trump also appears to have reached the same conclusion regarding this skepticism just two weeks after the war began. Trump told Fox News on the 12th that Iranian security forces are "shooting to death people trying to protest with machine guns" in the streets, adding, "So I think that is a really big obstacle for unarmed people, I think that is a really big obstacle. So it's going to happen, but probably not right now."

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The biggest failure of Mossad is the option to incite civil unrest by mobilizing Kurdish rebels, a plan long supported by the CIA.

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While many specific details of Mossad's plans remain secret, one element included supporting an invasion by Iranian Kurdish militias based in northern Iraq.

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Mossad has maintained long-standing ties with Kurdish groups, and U.S. officials have revealed that the CIA and Mossad have provided weapons and other support to Kurdish forces in recent years.

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The CIA had existing authority to support Iranian Kurdish fighters and has been providing weapons and advice since before the current war.

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During the first few days of the war, Israeli fighter jets and bombers bombed Iranian military and police targets in northwestern Iran to pave the way for Kurdish forces. During a telephone briefing on March 4, an Israeli military spokesman was asked whether Israel was conducting high-intensity bombing in western Iran to support the invasion of the Kurds.

Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani stated, "We have been conducting very intensive operations in western Iran to weaken the capabilities of the Iranian regime, open the way to Tehran, and create freedom of operation. That was our primary objective."

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However, U.S. officials are no longer enthusiastic about the idea of using Kurds as a proxy force, a concept that existed even before the war, which has sparked tension with Israel.

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On March 7, just one week after the war began, President Trump revealed that he had clearly instructed Kurdish leaders not to deploy militias.

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He told reporters, "I do not want the Kurds to come in," adding, "I do not want to see Kurds get hurt or killed."

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Some media outlets reported that he had spoken directly with a "Kurdish leader" prior to these remarks. Shortly after reports emerged that Kurdish militias might join the campaign, Bafel Talabani, leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan—one of the major Iraqi Kurdish parties—stated in a Fox News interview that no such plans were underway.

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"An advance by Kurdish forces could have the exact opposite effect of what was intended," he said. "One could argue that this is actually a disadvantage, as Iranians are very nationalistic. If they fear that Kurds entering from elsewhere will divide or split their country, I believe this could actually unite the people against this separatist movement."

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Talabani's Fox interview is available on YouTube under the title <Kurdish leader addresses potential military operation in Iran>.

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Turkey warned the Trump administration not to support any Kurdish actions. The NYT reported, “This message was conveyed by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a recent conversation,” adding, “The Turkish diplomat has long opposed operations by armed Kurds as a NATO ally, as Turkey is fighting Kurdish separatists within its own borders.”

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In Iran, the uprising that Israel and the United States had anticipated has not yet occurred, and Iran attempted to shift from a defensive war to an offensive one using long-range missiles.

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U.S. officials briefed on the pre-war intelligence assessment said the CIA evaluated various possible developments within Iran after the conflict began.

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The New York Times reported, “Intelligence agencies considered the complete collapse of the Iranian government a relatively unlikely outcome,” adding, “Other intelligence-savvy U.S. officials said the government suppressed uprisings relatively quickly when under pressure, such as the large-scale protests in January that killed thousands of demonstrators.”

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According to the U.S. intelligence assessment, while armed factions within the Iranian government could turn against each other or take actions that could trigger a civil war, it concluded that these factions are more likely to support rival religious leaders than to represent a democratic movement.

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The intelligence agencies' comprehensive assessment reported that the most likely outcome is that hardliners within the existing government will continue to hold the leverage of power.

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A CIA spokesperson declined to comment. Mossad and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) declined to comment on the NYT report.

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Israeli intelligence agencies have long considered the possibility of instigating an uprising in Iran immediately after the start of their own operations or military operations, but they have dismissed the possibility until recently.

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Mossad was responsible for planning as Israel's primary agency for overseas operations.

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Shahar Koifman, former head of Iran affairs at the Israel Defense Forces' Military Intelligence Research Center, told the NYT that while Israel explored various ideas to weaken or overthrow the Iranian government, in his opinion, it was “destined to fail from the start,” adding that he “does not believe that bringing down the Iranian government in the current conflict is an achievable goal.”

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Former Director Yossi Cohen and current Director David Barnea clashed over the operation to start a war by instigating an uprising in Iran. The New York Times reported, “Yossi Cohen, the predecessor of Mossad Chief Barnea, judged that attempts to incite rebellion within Iran were a waste of time and ordered resources allocated to the issue to be minimized.” The report added, “During Chief Cohen’s tenure (which ended in 2021), the Mossad calculated the number of citizens required to participate in protests to genuinely threaten the Iranian government by comparing it to the actual scale of protests since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.”

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Cohen previously told the NYT in 2018, “We considered whether we could bridge this gap, but we concluded that it was impossible.”

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Instead, Barnea’s Mossad strategy was to weaken the Iranian government to effectively force it to yield to the demands of Israel and the United States, combining economic sanctions with assassination operations against Iranian nuclear scientists and military leaders, as well as operations to destroy nuclear facilities.

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As the likelihood of Israeli military action against Iran increased over the past year, Chief Barnea reversed the Mossad’s approach and allocated resources to plans capable of overthrowing the Tehran government in the event of war. According to officials over the past few months, Barnea has come to believe that the Mossad could trigger uprisings across Iran following days of intensive Israeli and U.S. airstrikes and the assassination of a senior Iranian leader.

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However, unlike the Mossad's operations, no uprisings have occurred since the strikes and assassinations that took place early in the war.

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Nevertheless, Israeli officials say they have not yet given up hope.

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On Sunday (the 22nd), when asked on CNN how the war would end, Israel’s Ambassador to the U.S., Yehiel Reiter, revealed the possibility of an opposition uprising within Iran by stating, "We think we need ground troops, but they must be Iranian troops," adding, "And it seems they are coming." The New York Times reported on the 22nd under the headline "Israel's Missile Defense System Under Scrutiny After Iranian Attack" that "there are few places in Israel as well protected as major nuclear research facilities and reactors. This site is located eight miles from the town of Dimona in the southern Negev Desert." The article continued, "So when two Iranian ballistic missiles crashed into residential areas in Dimona and the nearby city of Arad on Saturday night, bypassing the nation's renowned air defense network, even combat-experienced Israelis appeared shocked by the sight of the destruction."

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The NYT further stated, "Just as shocking as the damage was the fact that the Israeli military admitted it attempted to intercept the Iranian missiles," adding, "The missiles fell at intervals of about three hours, and these failures raised uncomfortable questions about Israel's multi-layered missile defense system and its ability to protect civilians."

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It has already been pointed out multiple times that the Israeli military may have exhausted its defensive missile stockpiles following the 12-day war with Iran last June. On February 27, the New York Times reported under the headline "Israel Faces Potential War with Weakened Missile Defenses" that "a conflict with Iran in June 2025 has depleted the ballistic missile reserves of Israel and the United States. If another war breaks out, there will be pressure to destroy Iranian missiles before they are launched."

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In response, Israeli Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir acknowledged these concerns on Saturday (the 21st), stating, "If current operations with Iran are merely an 'intermediate phase,' these concerns could intensify in the coming weeks."

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In a report on a conflict in June 2025 by the Jewish Institute for National Security (JINSA) in Washington, only 49 of the 574 ballistic missiles launched by the United States in Iranian missile defenses hit meaningful targets, while some Iranian missiles failed or struck open areas. At the time, Israel and the United States attempted to intercept 322 Iranian missiles, successfully intercepting 273 of them with an 85% success rate.

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A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) last December stated that the 100 to 250 THAAD interceptors launched by the U.S. accounted for 20% to 50% of the Pentagon's total inventory, and that the 80 SM-3 missiles used by the end of 2025 amounted to nearly one-fifth of the military stockpile.

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Ari Chikurel, the author of the JINSA report, confirmed the "stock shortage," stating, "The defense was impressive, but it also showed that our baseline stockpile is too small."

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Last January, the Pentagon decided to quadruple annual production from 96 units to 400. The New York Times reported, “The manufacturing speed of Arrow-3 and SM-3 interceptors produced in the United States is very slow, with experts saying that only about 24 of each are produced annually,” adding that “Israel’s Arrow-3 inventory and production speed are being managed even more strictly.”

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Tal Inbar, Israel’s senior researcher at the Missile Defense Advocacy Coalition, indirectly acknowledged the “missile shortage” by telling the NYT, “If you want to worry about your friends, I tell them I won’t ruin their mood.”

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See <Trump Loses Control Over Iran War Conflict; Israeli Nuclear Facility Air Defenses Penetrated, March 22, 2026>

<European Governments Report ‘Accumulating US Damage’ Due to Asymmetry in Iran’s Multi-Layered Power, Prolonged War, March 6, 2026>

<Patriot ‘Limits’ to Drone Attack Capability Against Iran’s Dimona Nuclear Facility, March 5, 2026>

<Trump Fails to Achieve Early Regime Change in Iran; Overseas Weapons ‘Activated’ for ‘Prolonged War,’ March 2, 2026>

<Hundreds Bet on Friday for Saturday Attack; Thursday US-Iran Summit, March 4, 2026>