International Energy Agency forecasts 'high oil prices' this year due to growing uncertainty in international energy

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted on the 29th that China's oil consumption decreased for the first time in decades last year, curbing the rise in international energy prices.
The Bank of Korea said on the same day, “The future energy market will show fluctuations depending on various factors such as geopolitical conflicts and abnormal weather as well as economic factors.” As a result, volatility increases,” the report said.
In the 'Analysis of Overseas Economic Issues - Energy Supply and Demand', the Bank of Korea said, "The possibility of demand increase after China's quarantine measures are eased will act as an important variable in the crude oil market this year." It will act as a factor in expanding crude oil demand.”
The IEA said China's oil demand fell 3% last year, or 390,000 barrels per day, the first decline since 1990, while global aggregate demand rose by 2.2 million barrels per day (about 2%). “It can explain a large part of the global recovery from Covid-19 during the pandemic.”
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said China's natural gas demand fell 0.7% last year, the first decline since 1982, with China accounting for half of the increase in global oil demand of 2 million barrels per day this year.
In the case of liquefied natural gas, China's imports fell 21 percent last year, making it the second-largest gas importer after Japan, the IEA said.
Regarding the outlook for the international gas market this year, the IEA predicted a rapid rebound from a 0.4% increase in global gas demand to a 6.5% increase in Chinese demand.
Fatih Birol, managing director of the IEA, said: "Last year, Europe came out of 'winter' with reduced energy demand in China and an unseasonably warm winter, but this year the weather could be colder and Western sanctions against Russia “Next winter may be more difficult,” he told the New York Times on the 29th of the arrival of high oil prices, saying that fuel exports will further decrease and the Chinese economy will recover.
A report by the Bank of Korea said, “As Europe’s LNG import expansion intensifies import competition with Asian countries, supply and demand instability will occur in the short term.” However, Europe considers natural gas as a temporary energy source and prefers spot contracts, which is also a factor aggravating supply and demand uncertainty.”
“Russia sent 75% of Ukraine's pre-war gas exports and 55% of its oil exports to Europe, offsetting the loss of European business by selling more to China and India after the war,” said Birol, director of the IEA. “Russia's oil exports are the same as a year ago, while gas exports have almost halved. Russia's crude oil export revenues fell from oil and gas imports in December last year to about 30%, or $8 billion per month, from the previous year,” he told the NYT.
He said that in terms of energy supply, supply is unstable due to uncertainty in Russian energy production and a slight increase in new liquefied natural gas export terminals to be built this year by producers such as the United States, Australia and Qatar, and in demand, China is the major player in relation to global energy markets this year. "Because of the uncertainty, how the Chinese economy will perform will have a huge impact on global energy markets."
Regarding the energy market outlook for this year, he said, “We can expect bigger energy problems as we press for an invasion of Ukraine.” did,” he said.

Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong said at a price stabilization briefing on December 20 last year, “[Korea] suffered less when oil prices rose a lot, so when oil prices fall, it can have the opposite effect.” , and announced that 'price forecasts will be readjusted in consideration of the delayed electricity rate hike that was suppressed in early 2023 and 2022'.