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Kyong-ho Choo failed to hit the low in May, and the trade deficit widened. IMF 1.4% ADB 1.3% growth rate decline

김종찬안보 2023. 7. 26. 17:08
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Kyong-ho Choo failed to hit the low in May, and the trade deficit widened. IMF 1.4% ADB 1.3% growth rate decline

 

In July, as the decline in semiconductor exports and exports to China became a fatal blow, Deputy Prime Minister Choo Kyung-ho's economic stimulus measures at the "low point in May" failed, and the IMF lowered this year's economic growth forecast to 1.4%, while the ADB lowered it to 1.3%.
The Korea Customs Service's exports from the 1st to the 20th of this month were $31.233 billion, down 15.2% from the same period last year, and semiconductor exports plummeted 35.4%.
In an answer to the National Assembly on May 21, Deputy Prime Minister Choo Kyung-ho said, "The trade deficit was the smallest in April, but it will not be good in May due to the base effect of last year." You will be able to see a completely different external performance than now.”
The decrease in exports for the 20 days of July was the 10th consecutive month, with imports of 32.594 billion dollars and a trade deficit of 1.361 billion dollars.
The decrease in semiconductor exports is the 11th month since August last year, and the decrease in exports was 48.7% in petroleum products (compared to the same month last year), steel products (-15.2%), and wireless communication devices (-13.5%).
China's exports declined 21.2% year-on-year through the 20th, continuing for 13 months since June of last year, and the trade deficit has been 10 months in a row since October of last year.
As for the decrease in trade with China, the total amount of trade, the sum of exports and imports, is a deficit of $1.214 billion as of the 20th of this month. 
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered this year's economic growth rate by 0.1 percentage point to 1.4 percent on the 25th.
The IMF lowered its forecast from 1.7% to 1.5% in April, and lowered it by 0.1%p three months later.
The IMF lowered Korea's growth rate from 2.9% to 2.1% in July of last year, then lowered the growth rate for five consecutive times: 2.0% in October and 1.7% in January this year.
The economic growth rate fell to 1.5% for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 1.4% for the Bank of Korea, and 1.3% for the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
In a keynote speech at the Korea Chamber of Commerce on the 12th, Deputy Prime Minister Chu said, "The growth rate (1.8%) in the second half is better than the first half (0.9%), and next year it will rebound by more than 1 percentage point from this year." , the trade balance will show a significant surplus in the fourth quarter."

SK Hynix announced on the 26th that it had decided to “additionally cut production by 5-10%” for NAND flash, saying that it had sales of 7,305.9 billion won and an operating loss of 2,882.1 billion won in the second quarter.
SK Hynix's deficit in the first half of the year (3.4023 trillion won in operating loss in the first quarter) was 6.3 trillion won in the negative for three consecutive quarters.
The interest rate gap between the U.S. and Korea widened to a maximum of 2.0% as a result of an additional interest rate hike on the same day.