Biden ‘sends former delegation opposing Taiwan independence’ President Lai ‘prefers to station former U.S. military incident advisors’
Tensions with China are growing as U.S. President Biden dispatched a delegation made up of former officials to Taiwan while speaking out against Taiwan's independence, and President-elect Lai has led the policy of 'increasing the stationing of former U.S. military accident advisors in Taiwan' since his time as vice president.
In the United States, unlike the Democratic Party's policy of 'opposing Taiwan's independence', Republican President-elect Trump formalized the rising tensions with China by 'talking directly to the President of Taiwan' in 2016, and the Taiwan policy between the U.S. Democratic Party and the Republican Party ahead of the US presidential election in November. It looks like a clash.
In 1979, when the Democratic Party was in power, President Carter officially switched diplomacy from Taiwan to China and excluded Taiwan from the list of countries. However, under the Republican Trump administration, China's opposition grew stronger as Taiwan's leader and the U.S. president spoke directly.
“We do not support independence,” President Joe Biden said on the 13th following Taiwan’s election results, after the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which defies China, won its third term as president.
The United States is Taiwan's most important international supporter and arms supplier, despite not having formal diplomatic ties with the country.
In response to President Lai Ching-te's victory, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, "We look forward to the United States working with President Lai and leaders of all political parties in Taiwan to advance America's 'long-standing informal relationship consistent with the one-China policy.'" He spoke of his support for the 'One China' policy and solidarity with Taiwan's political parties.
The day before Taiwan's presidential election, Secretary Blinken met with Chinese Communist Party International Department Director Liu Jianchao in Washington, and Secretary Blinken "reiterated the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait," the U.S. State Department said.
In other official remarks, Director Liu appears to have warned the United States not to intervene in the "Taiwan area."
Chinese President Xi Jinping said that China “will unify Taiwan and the motherland, which the Communist Party regards as sacred and lost territory,” and linked the election to “Taiwan unification” a few weeks before the election, calling it a “historical necessity.”
Just before the election, President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) pledged to “strongly reject China’s pressure and engage in dialogue against China.”
Regarding Taiwan's election results, the New York Times said, "For the third year in a row, it has handed over presidential power to a party that insists on Taiwan's separate identity, confirming that this tumultuous democracy has moved further away from its dream of unification with China." “They ignored China’s warning that a vote for the Democratic Progressive Party was a vote for war, and they made that choice.”
Reuters quoted a Taiwanese government official as saying, “China is expected to put pressure on the next president by conducting military exercises nearby in the spring after the vote,” and a Biden administration official said, “President Biden’s support for the Taiwanese government. “We plan to send an unofficial delegation to demonstrate this, and the delegation will include some former high-ranking U.S. officials.”
Before the Taiwan election, Chinese officials described Candidate Lai as a 'stubborn 'Taiwan independence activist', 'destroyer of cross-Strait peace', and 'initiator of a dangerous war' in editorials and official comments in Chinese state-run newspapers.
Taiwan's value is that the Chinese government does not allow American interference due to the remnants of the civil war, and for the United States, it is the first line of defense in the global security system and is a high-tech semiconductor factory, so enormous stakes are at stake.
Taiwan's increased stake was distributed to the Korean Peninsula, avoiding the conflict between the United States and China in 1949, which led to the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950.
Susan Shirk, a professor at the University of California at San Diego (author of 'Overreach: How China Derailed the Peaceful Rise of China'), said the election results "showed the reality of Taiwanese politics that a tougher, harder-line approach is not working," and added, "This election is a sign of the conflict between both sides of the Strait." “The direction of the relationship cannot be changed, and this will likely continue and deepen the dynamics of brinkmanship and tension,” he told the NYT.
"It is in China's national interest to pave the way for peaceful integration so that China does not have to fight," she said. "Many people are watching this interaction and Beijing's response, and all investors are watching it as well." “I’m doing it,” he said.
“Lai Qingde is an impulsive and politically biased person, so we cannot rule out the possibility of unpredictable and unknown events occurring during his tenure,” said Zhu Songling, professor of Taiwan studies at Peking University. “He is likely to be very dangerous.” “President Xi’s views on Taiwan are clear,” he told the NYT.
Evan S. Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University, told the New York Times that "the next four years will not be stable in terms of cross-Strait relations with the U.S. and China."
Wen-ti Sung, a Taiwanese studies political scientist at the Australian National University, said U.S. military advisers made up of retired officers, referred to as "English teachers" by Taiwanese officials, are increasingly stationed in Taiwan and that new President Lai will be under his command from vice president. He said that more people will be taking that path.
“China is turning a blind eye, so the question is how much of its presence will cross the Rubicon,” he said. “I hope we don’t lose,” he said.
In this election in Taiwan, the President's Lai Ching-de (Democratic Progressive Party) candidate received 40.05% of the votes and the Kuomintang (pro-China) candidate received 33.49%. In the National Assembly (Legislative Council), the Kuomintang Party had 52 seats, the Democratic Progressive Party had 51 seats, and the People's Party had 8 seats. The pro-American government failed to take control of the National Assembly. External risk diversification strategies due to heightened internal conflict have increased the possibility of heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
In the 2020 election under the previous pro-American Democratic Progressive Party government, current President Tsai Ing-wen's 57% (8.17 million votes) of the vote decreased to 40.05% this time, and 51 seats in parliament were elected, a continuous decline from 68 in 2016 and 61 in 2020.
The opposition party's pro-China Kuomintang Party now holds 52 seats, an increase of 14 from 38 in 2020, showing the limits of the Democratic Progressive Party's pro-US foreign strategy.
The election results showed that China had no reason to rush to war, the U.S. Democratic Party had no need to worsen cross-Strait problems until the presidential election, and Japan increased its stake in the high-tech semiconductor alliance, linking the U.S. and Taiwan to prevent war, while the U.S. Republican Party won the election. With the October Subprize, the Taiwan variable disappeared, shifting war pressure to the Korean Peninsula.