US State Department and Defense Reverse ‘Expected in the coming days’ to ‘Uncertain and unpredictable’ on the previous day, ‘Preemptive support’ for Russia’s seized assets
The US Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense repeated the same terms ‘within in the coming days’ and ‘expected’ for matters other than the agenda of the 2+2 meeting with South Korea on the 31st, and Secretary of Defense Austin completely changed his announcements of ‘no axis’, ‘uncertain deployment’, and ‘evidence being collected’ in a single day at the joint press conference of the ROK-US Defense Ministerial Meeting on the 30th.
The New York Times linked the North Korean missile launch on the 30th to this change in North Korea’s strategy, saying, “North Korea has fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time in nearly a year, raising the world’s alarm.”
The New York Times reported on the 23rd that the US Treasury Department will provide Ukraine with $50 billion starting at the end of this year as a guarantee for interest assets and prepaid loans arising from the seizure of $300 billion from Russia’s central bank in Europe. The New York Times reported on the 31st that regarding Blinken's changed remarks that day, "Secretary Blinken emphasized strengthening the partnership between North Korea and Russia in a recent meeting with China's top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, before disclosing information about the North Korean military," and "Another U.S. official said that National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan urged U.S. agencies to take the lead in conveying concerns to China and highlighting potential consequences." Regarding Blinken's remarks that day, the New York Times said, "As the North Korean military prepares to fight to help Russia in its war in Ukraine, the Biden administration is turning to an unexpected interlocutor, and U.S. officials are talking to China to convey the threat to North Korea," and "North Korea's involvement in Ukraine is drawing Europe deeper into East Asian security issues that China does not want," revealing on the 31st a change in the U.S. Democratic Party's strategy for approaching North Korea. The previous day (30th), Ukrainian President Zelensky harshly criticized Western countries for their “zero response” on KBS in South Korea.
Reuters reported on KBS on the 31st as “strongly criticizing” Western countries for their “zero” response to North Korea’s deployment of troops, under the title “Zelensky fiercely criticizes allies for their “zero” response to North Korea’s deployment of troops for the war in Ukraine,” saying, “President Zelensky fiercely criticized allies for their “zero” response to North Korea’s deployment of troops for the war in Ukraine, saying that a weak response would encourage Putin to strengthen his troops.” “In an interview with South Korea’s KBS television channel, the Ukrainian leader said he believed Moscow was already trying to get North Korea to agree to sending engineering units and “large numbers of civilians” to work at Russian military factories.” Secretary of State Tony Blinken said in a joint press conference immediately following the Washington meeting on the 31st, “We now assess that there are some 10,000 North Korean soldiers in total in Russia, and the more recent information indicates that as many as 8,000 of those North Korean forces have been deployed to the Kursk region. We've not yet seen these troops deploy into combat against Ukrainian forces, but we would expect that to happen in the coming days.”
The recording of the statement released by Voice of America (VOA) is <We now assess that there are some 10,000 North Korean soldiers in total in Russia, and the more recent information indicates that as many as 8,000 of those North Korean forces have been deployed to the Kursk region. We've not yet seen these troops deploy into combat against Ukrainian forces, but we would expect that to happen in the coming days.>
Defense Secretary Austin said in a press conference, “We have not yet confirmed whether North Korean soldiers have been deployed to the battlefield. “Now, we've not yet seen these soldiers deploying into combat against Ukraine's forces, but we expect that these North Korean soldiers will join the fight against Ukraine in the coming days,” he said, echoing the Secretary of State's outlook and using the term “in the coming days.” At a press conference held the previous day with Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun to hold the ROK-U.S. Security Consultative Meeting (SCM), Secretary Austin said, “It is not certain whether they will be deployed to combat. What is clear is that 10,000 soldiers and some of them are moving west toward the Ukrainian border, so there is a possibility that they will be deployed,” he said, adding, “But we will not speculate, we will watch and collect evidence,” indicating that it was “uncertain deployment,” “not speculating,” and “evidence being collected.”
In a KBS interview article, Reuters reported that, “Zelensky began publicly warning of North Korea’s involvement in the war on October 13,” and that, “Western allies have since described this action as a major escalation of tensions, but he did not announce retaliatory measures or say that he was preparing to take any action.”
Reuters continued, “Zelensky said, ‘Putin is checking the reaction of the West. And I believe that after all these reactions, Putin will make a decision and increase the deployment. The reaction we have today is nothing, zero.’”
In a KBS interview, Zelensky said on the 30th, “So far, North Korean troops have not participated in combat and are preparing to participate in combat in Kursk, Russia,” and “It seems that there will be fighting within a few days.” Zelensky told KBS, “The media reports that the Ukrainian and North Korean forces engaged in the first exchange of fire and that there were North Korean casualties are not true, and the US CNN report that the North Korean army crossed the Ukrainian border is also not true,” and announced that the previous refusal to engage in combat was “not true.”
Zelensky specifically mentioned “shells” and “air defense networks” regarding the weapons support he wanted from South Korea, saying, “After the North Korean army gains the official status of a military force that came to fight Ukrainian civilians, they will send a specific request,” and “This will include artillery and air defense systems.”
Reuters reported in this article that “Russian forces have been advancing slowly in eastern Ukraine for months, and Kiev (Ukraine) is struggling to find a way to stop them (Russia) due to its inferiority in weapons and numbers,” and revealed that the battle had turned into a “Russian advantage,” creating the abnormality of “foreign reinforcements expected to be deployed in a battle of a dominant warring country.” The New York Times reported in a report on the situation on the 31st that “For most of the past year, Russian forces have waged bloody attacks on Ukrainian positions, often with limited success, but the relentless onslaught is now beginning to bear fruit.” “In October, as the Ukrainian front buckled under sustained pressure, Russia made its largest territorial expansion since the summer of 2022, and over the past month, Russian forces have seized more than 160 square kilometers of land in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, the main theater of the current war, enabling them to seize strategic towns that have formed a Ukrainian defensive line in the region, starting with Bukhledar in early October.” The U.S.-led G7 has finalized a plan to lend Ukraine $50 billion in proceeds from Russia’s $300 billion in frozen central bank assets, Biden administration officials said on the 1st. White House National Security Adviser Daleep Singh said on October 1 that the US would provide $20 billion of the $50 billion loan, with the EU, the UK, Canada and Japan providing the remainder.
Russia’s $300 billion in foreign exchange reserves are held in Euroclear, a central securities depository in Belgium, and generate more than $3 billion in interest annually.
The US and EU enacted sanctions to freeze Russian central bank assets, most of which are held in Europe, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, and US officials attempted to seize the funds under the pretext of supporting Ukraine’s economic recovery, but European officials expressed concerns about the legality of the seizure, and negotiations continued. The two sides agreed last summer to a “$50 billion loan guarantee for the interest on the assets.”
The G7 finance ministers, led by US Treasury Secretary Allen, decided that “the loan does not violate international law because the interest on the Russian assets is not owned by Russia.” At least half of the $50 billion in U.S. funds is expected to be distributed to Ukraine later this year through a World Bank trust fund, with loans provided by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, which is overseen by the U.S. Treasury Department, and guaranteed by the U.S. Agency for International Development.
In diplomacy, when the same term is used by different entities at the same time, it is interpreted as “strategic concealment” and an attempt at media manipulation.