Trump's landslide victory 'Vote Tracking' low-propensity voters close, Korea's 'candidate selection'

Trump's landslide victory 'Vote Tracking' low-propensity voters close, Korea's 'candidate selection'

 

 

Trump's Republican landslide victory was revealed to be the result of a large investment in a campaign strategy that created a list of low-propensity voters with low voting frequency and built a close structure through a 'ballot tracking' program.

The surprising result of Trump's landslide victory in six states classified as competitive states in the polls was the result of a huge investment in the 'ballot tracking' campaign, and the mobile phone voter tracking was introduced by the Democratic Research Institute during the first term of Trump and Moon Jae-in, and was used to select candidates and win a landslide victory in the general election.

Ahead of the 2024 election, the conservative group Turning Point Action made a risky and expensive bet to solve the Republican Party's early voting problem, and the successful targeting of 'low-propensity voters' resulted in a high voter turnout.

The group "Chase the Vote" focused the program on Arizona, where they have a base, and told the New York Times that they spent tens of millions of dollars to get Trump elected.

‘Vote Tracking’ involved hundreds of paid staff working to implement a campaign program to ‘build lasting relationships’ with Arizonans who the conservative strategy group ‘Turning Point’ determined to be Republican-friendly in the non-voter classification, which, unlike traditional mass campaigning, turned ‘a smaller number of voters’ into direct targets for campaigning, and the result was a landslide victory over the previous Democratic lead in Arizona.

The New York Times reported on the 23rd that Turning Point’s gamble in Arizona, which was classified as a ‘close race’ by American polling organizations and media outlets, appeared to have paid off, at least in Arizona.

According to recently released voting data compiled by Target Smart, a Democratic polling company, the Republican Party has a clear advantage among ‘low-frequency voters.’

According to Democratic polling results, about 30,000 ‘registered Republican voters in Arizona who have not voted since 2018’ voted directly in this year’s presidential election, and Trump won.

The New York Times reported that Democrats, in comparison, only 20,000 of the same type of voters participated in the vote.

Republican President-elect Trump won a landslide victory over Democrat Harrison in Arizona by more than 187,000 votes.

The New York Times said, “This is a relatively large margin that cannot be attributed to a single group,” and added, “It lends credence to the theory that Turning Point has pushed and other conservative groups have embraced, that Trump can attract a large number of voters who are either less Republican or first-time voters, and that he does not need to expend energy appealing to true swing voters or moderate Democrats.”

This kind of “finding low-level voters and building long-term relationships” campaign is expensive, but many of the unusual elements of the Trump campaign involved partnerships with allied groups such as America PAC, a super PAC led by Elon Musk and Turning Point, which led the campaign.

This was a campaign group called “Coordinated Campaign Partners,” which shared data with the Republican National Committee and the Trump campaign and received ongoing voter data from them.

The Times reported that “these groups operated in parallel in battleground states like Wisconsin, and Turning Point was most influential in Arizona,” where “numerous paid staffers frequently contacted targeted voters to build deeper personal relationships.”

The Times continued with regard to the “Vote Tracking” campaign, saying, “Republicans still hold an advantage in Arizona among voters who skipped the 2022 midterms but voted in other recent elections, with 185,000 votes for Republicans to 157,000 for Democrats, but the GOP has a much greater advantage among first-time voters: 202,000 Republicans voted, while only 145,000 Democrats voted.”

“Arizona is where we threw the kitchen sink,” Tyler Bowyer, chief operating officer of Turning Point, a conservative strategy group backed by Republicans, told the Times. “We didn’t focus on knocking on doors or hanging doorknobs. Those are kind of filler statistics. We focused more on building relationships. So when you focus on the relationships that are built, you really get to know who the person is, what the conditions are for them, what makes them tick, what drives them.” “Part of the group’s success is due to the political climate,” Bowyer said. “The low-inclination voters were very supportive of Trump and our populist message.”

Bowyer was indicted in Arizona this year on charges of operating as a swindler after the 2020 election, and Bowyer acknowledged that the group hasn’t been able to expand its operations in Wisconsin to the same extent as it did in Arizona.

Bowyer, on the other hand, said, “We still had a massive statewide effort, reaching more than 70,000 voters. We wanted to do more in Wisconsin. “The results in Arizona were much better than we expected, and the performance in Wisconsin, where Trump won, was very successful,” he told the Times.

Andrew Kolvet, a Turning Point spokesman, told the Times that the group initially planned to focus on a statewide effort in Michigan but later made a strategic decision to focus solely on the state’s competitive 7th Congressional District.

“The group helped turn out more than 16,000 voters in districts that were controlled by Republicans,” Kolvet told the Times.

Republicans credit this success in attracting new voters to “a number of factors,” including Trump’s unconventional style and his embrace of right-wing podcasters and YouTube stars, according to Turning Point founder Charlie Kirk, one of several influential new media figures who has become increasingly active on TikTok. “It’s a name,” he said.

The New York Times reported that Turning Point analyst Amanda Blake was campaigning in Mesa, Arizona, in October, and that “hundreds of paid staffers like Blake have worked to build lasting relationships with Arizonans who consider Turning Point friendly to Republicans.”

The origins of the “ballot-tracking” strategy can be traced back to Bowyer and other Turning Point staffers developing the organization’s “Chase the Vote” program after the GOP suffered a crushing defeat in the 2022 midterm elections.

The decisive blow in this election came with a “reversal of early voting” in six traditionally battleground states where polling had forecast a major loss.

Republican strategists believed that Democrats’ wide lead in early voting would be crucial in a number of close races, including the primary for Arizona governor, Senate and other state offices, and Bowyer and other Turning Point staffers It was recognized that it would be difficult to bring about a wholesale change in the voting behavior of Republicans in one election cycle.

Trump and other top Republicans have been heavily promoting and publicizing “early voting and mail-in voting fraud,” and the GOP has maintained for years that “the only safe way for many Republican voters to vote in person on Election Day is to vote.”

The new strategy point, on the other hand, is that Turning Point has implemented early voting and mail-in voting as “more flexible voting methods” than going to the polls on Election Day, and that this is a more effective way to “attract low-inclination voters and first-time voters.”

Bowyer also judged that “Trump’s populist message was very good,” based on the “fake news fraud vote indiscriminate attack” that penetrated low-inclination “non-respondent voters.”

While some members of Turning Point continued to criticize “early voting,” the group created a “list of low-propensity voters” of about 400,000 people across Arizona, saying, “In order for the Republican Party to win and to fix the election law, they need to change their habits based on the current rules.”

Low-propensity voter risk provides the most opportunities for mobile pick-up in rural areas. Changing the strategy, Turning Point’s new strategy focused more on densely populated and red-leaning areas (Republican strongholds), and as a result, gave importance to areas such as Mesa and the state’s “East Valley,” which includes other areas southeast of Phoenix.

“In those areas, tens of thousands of people didn’t vote, and all of that was basically within a two-mile radius,” the official explained to the New York Times about the process of “expanding voter tracking.”

Polarization in the United States has become even more extreme due to this strategy of individualizing voters through “voter tracking,” and this directly leads to the results of the election campaign in Korea, where polarization has worsened due to the close contact with mobile phone numbers and polling information.

The ‘Turning Point’ strategy is their basic belief and strategy that the best option for the declining Republican Party is to attract low-inclination and conservative voters instead of fighting the Democratic Party for the shrinking swing voters.

“If you look at the presidential election, they are practically dependent on low-inclination voters,” Bauer told the NYT. “From the president’s perspective, low-income voters are a demand that we have to meet. And I don’t think that will change for the time being unless the method and method of voting change.”

Turning Point plans to expand this program to more states in future elections.

In Korea, the ‘location tracking’ based on personal cell phones, which is more precisely integrated than the various individual voter information in the United States, was used for election campaigns with an unlimited supply of information devices that combined ‘voting tendency’ and ‘voting frequency’ with the technology and funds provided by telecommunications companies and conglomerates, and this was applied as a ‘regional nomination selection survey model’ and a ‘selection of places to attach campaign posters’ strategy.

Refer to <Big Data Election Landslide Victory, Codification of Personal Information in Exclusive Contracts with Telecommunications Companies, April 16, 2020>