Lee Jae-myung's "Arms Buildup Priority" Violates Panmunjom Declaration, Demands "Disarmament Implementation" in Inter-Korean Military Agreement
Considering the fact that "disarmament implementation" is a top priority in the Inter-Korean Military Agreement, President Lee Jae-myung's announcement that he would restore the September 19 Military Agreement and broker a North Korea-US summit under his "arms buildup priority" policy is likely to intensify the severance of inter-Korean dialogue.
At a New Year's press conference, President Lee Jae-myung said, "The South does not have nuclear weapons and has no intention of possessing nuclear weapons in the future," regarding the "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," and "there are no nuclear weapons because there is no thought." He placed the nation below his "personal thoughts" and, as an absolute ruler, demanded that "we will negotiate disarmament" with "North Korea" only if "further cessation of nuclear production" takes precedence, directly violating the Panmunjeom Declaration's plan to "foster inter-Korean dialogue prioritizing disarmament."
In particular, President Lee declared on this day that he would "restore" the annulment of the inter-Korean military agreement, which was agreed upon as a follow-up implementation of the Panmunjeom Declaration. However, as a strategy to reduce economic productivity that relied on armament augmentation in the first place, he did not mention the abrogation of the Panmunjeom Declaration and announced 'armament augmentation first, disarmament last', so restoration of the military agreement appears impossible.
President Lee went on to say to South Korea, "I have no intention of possessing nuclear weapons," separate the nation from his "personal thoughts," and elevate himself to an absolute ruler transcending the nation by making it a fait accompli that "possessing military nuclear weapons and accelerating nuclear development" and unilaterally declared to North Korea that he would "dismantle North Korea's nuclear weapons," saying, "If only North Korea does not have nuclear weapons, the Korean Peninsula will be denuclearized."
In particular, in a way that shows absolute status, President Lee said, “North Korea is nuclear-armed and desires to be officially recognized as a nuclear state,” and “desire to maintain and preserve the regime.”
Accordingly, he downgraded North Korea to a “target for treatment under the Trump regime,” saying, “The key is the relationship between North Korea and the United States,” and stipulated that “denuclearization of North Korea is the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”
At the press conference, President Lee stated, "It is in our interest to stop producing nuclear materials, prevent the export of nuclear materials, and prevent the development of ICBM technology. It is also in our interest to halt the current situation." "No one will be harmed by stopping. Let's not give up on the ideal as a first step, but rather stop what is most realistic. Let's negotiate. Let's negotiate disarmament next. In the long run, let's move toward denuclearization. If the regime security is secure and the management costs are high, we can eliminate it," he said, using "pressure on the socialist economic system" as an incentive for dialogue.
The 2018 inter-Korean military agreement stated in Article 1, "The two sides agreed to continue consultations on various implementation measures related to the 'Panmunjom Declaration,' in which they agreed to achieve phased disarmament in accordance with the alleviation of military tension and trust-building." The preamble also specified, "We will thoroughly implement the 'Panmunjom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity, and Unification of the Korean Peninsula' militarily," which was signed by the defense ministers of both sides.
The April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, between the two Koreas' highest officials, stipulated in Article 3, "Establishment of a Peace Regime between the South and the North," in Paragraph 2, that "South and North Korea agreed to phase in disarmament as military tensions are eased and substantial military trust is built."
The inter-Korean agreement prioritizes "phased disarmament," with the "Inter-Korean Military Agreement" adopted as a subordinate strategy for its implementation. This breakdown occurred in North Korea, where Chairman Kim Jong-un first took issue with President Moon Jae-in's military buildup, leading to the abrogation of the Panmunjom Declaration. This was followed by Vice Department Director Kim Yo-jong's subsequent abrogation of the military agreement, citing her criticism of the ROK-US joint military exercises. On the other hand, President Lee Jae-myung stated at a New Year's press conference on the 21st, "The sharp coldness will not melt all at once, but we will consistently pursue feasible measures to elicit a response from the North and ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula," and "We will restore the September 19 Military Agreement to prevent accidental clashes between the South and the North and build political and military trust." He ruled out the possibility of success from the beginning by advocating for "forcing through negotiations" by "suspending the ROK-US joint military exercises."
North Korea stated that Chairman Kim Jong-un stated at the Supreme People's Assembly in September of last year, "The budget plan for next year, which was first approved under the Lee Jae-myung administration, reflects an 8.2% increase in military spending, far exceeding the Yoon Seok-yeol administration, which was notorious for its anti-republic confrontational fanaticism," and that this was "more than double" the Yoon administration's 3.9% military spending increase. During the process of the two sides' termination, Chairman Kim Jong-un declared at the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea in January 2021 that "we have returned to the state before the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration," and that South Korea could "return to the spring of three years ago."
Later, in response to the South Korea-US joint military exercises in March 2021, Vice Department Director Kim Yo-jong declared that South Korea had "crossed a red line" and vowed to "no longer engage" with the Moon Jae-in administration. He then announced the "termination of the military agreement in response to the South Korea-US joint military exercises," stating, "If they engage in even more provocative actions, we anticipate even the unprovoked termination of the North-South Military Agreement."
President Lee, in December of last year, pressured the North Korean economy with a military buildup and announced the appointment of a special envoy for Korean Peninsula peace, led by the Ministry of Unification, to facilitate a North Korea-US summit as a leading messenger of the ideology of "coexistence and co-prosperity." In a business report to the Ministry of Unification at the time, President Lee stated that North Korea's hostile two-nation policy, with its "unnecessary strong-arm policy" and "political ambitions," "truly hates us and seems to have made us into true enemies." He added on December 19, "It is the role of the Ministry of Unification to help foster even a little trust so that hostility can ease between the South and the North."
Unification Minister Chung Dong-young also announced a "matchmaking strategy" for the North Korea-U.S. summit through a military buildup, saying, "The Ministry of Unification hopes that the North Korea-U.S. summit will take place around the time of President Trump's visit to China next April." At a New Year's press conference on the 21st, President Lee stated, "With the change in administration, we are strengthening our strong national defense and security capabilities, but through dialogue and communication, we believe that a peaceful coexistence without the need for war, a situation where there is no room for conflict, is the most certain security. Therefore, we are pursuing dialogue and a conciliatory approach."
He continued, "US President Trump is a somewhat unique figure, but I believe that this can be of great help in resolving the Korean Peninsula issue. A style like President Trump's seems to be conducive to dialogue with Chairman Kim Jong-un. Therefore, let's pave the way. I will serve as a pacemaker. It would be difficult for us to do this ourselves, but if the peacemaker's efforts to create peace are successful, it will be beneficial to the Korean Peninsula, so we will do our best to create the conditions for that." He also stated that he would pressure North Korea to engage in dialogue through a "military buildup."
President Lee continued, regarding the won exchange rate, "I predict it will fall to around 1,400 in a month or two. I believe it will be difficult to restore it to its original level through South Korea's own policies." President Lee is pushing for a North Korea-US summit in April, and President Trump has stated that if the Republican Party loses its majority in the November midterm elections, he will be impeached.
Regarding the "armor buildup," President Lee stated, "We will develop strong national defense and security capabilities, but through dialogue and communication, we will not have to fight, we will not have to fight, we will not win without fighting. The most secure security is not a state of peaceful coexistence where there is no need for or room for fighting." He declared, "The strategy is to create a North Korea that has no room for fighting through a massive arms buildup."
President Lee then stated, "The strategy for inter-Korean relations is to secure robust defense and deterrence capabilities, and based on that foundation, rather than threatening with defense and deterrence, we will engage in dialogue, communication, consultation, and respect. This will create a path of coexistence and mutual prosperity." He stated, "We will prioritize achieving the highest level of military buildup before achieving shared prosperity."
He declared, "We will break the backs of socialist economies that are lagging behind in the arms race." President Lee said of the North Korean regime guarantee strategy, "As all experts know, it is probably due to the desire to maintain and preserve the regime. Because of insecurity. And it seems that the key to resolving that issue is the North Korea-US relationship."
He spoke of "guaranteeing the North Korean regime by the US." North Korea has officially shifted from "managing the crisis of war" with the US to "guaranteeing the pro-Russia socialist system," which is expected to intensify the conflict between Lee Jae-myung and Kim Jong-un.
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