Trump's unprofessional special envoy fails: Iran prioritizes "American interests" Ukraine prioritizes "territoriality"
The Trump administration's shuttle diplomacy, which attempted to simultaneously conclude the Ukraine War and the Iran nuclear deal through the use of unprofessional envoys, has failed in Iran's attempt to "guarantee American interests."
Iran separated the nuclear and economic sanctions negotiations from the agenda, dividing them into two specialized groups: the Foreign Minister and the Bureau of Economic Diplomacy. By engaging with Trump's real estate friend, the special envoy, and his son-in-law, a fund manager, Iran minimized the possibility of a nuclear deal breakdown.
Trump's pragmatic diplomacy, which attempted to achieve a simultaneous resolution through maximum pressure, exposed a flaw in managing the simultaneous crisis of two wars. A former real estate developer was appointed as the special envoy, and his son-in-law, a fund manager, accompanied him to the Middle East to negotiate. This exposed the weakness of US diplomacy, as the US pressured Ukraine to "give up its territory," an ally.
Reuters reported that “Russian chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said on the 18th that the U.S.-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Geneva were difficult but businesslike, and that new talks would take place soon,” adding that “the U.S. is trying to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, but Russia is demanding Ukraine’s withdrawal from parts of the eastern Donbas region it still controls, a demand that Kiev has rejected.”
Medinsky, a senior Kremlin aide, told reporters in Geneva that “they were difficult but businesslike,” and that “the next meeting will take place soon.”
Reuters reported on the 18th that “despite being a U.S. president obsessed with negotiations for a long time, Trump’s deployment of his favorite envoys to coordinate two negotiations in a single day in Geneva—the Iran nuclear standoff and Russia’s war in Ukraine—has left many in the foreign policy community perplexed.” “Experts say the shuttle diplomacy between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner on the 17th raises questions not only about their over-spreading and under-capacity, but also about their serious prospects for resolving either crisis,” the Reuters report said.
Trump’s envoy held talks on the Ukraine war at a hotel in Geneva, Switzerland, that day, and then proceeded to the hotel after holding talks with Iran earlier that day at the Omani embassy in Geneva.
Secretary of State Rubio, the Trump administration’s top diplomat, did not attend the Geneva meeting.
As son-in-law Kushner and special envoy Witkoff monopolized negotiations on Iran, the longest war since World War II, the Trump administration was weakened by downsizing the State Department and the National Security Council's foreign policy apparatus, with some analysts saying many veteran staffers were let go, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The New York Times reported that "negotiators have shown no public signs of progress since their first discussions in Geneva on the 17th," and that "the talks were expected to focus on the fate of occupied territories in eastern Ukraine that Moscow seeks to control in exchange for an end to the war, but Ukraine has said it cannot accept that demand."
Harry Nedelku, a senior director at research firm Rasmussen Global, said, "The United States wants Ukraine to make territorial concessions first, and only then will Washington provide security guarantees to Kyiv. This risks trapping Kyiv, which Russia will exploit for another attack," and he called the Trump envoy's "failure to negotiate" to the New York Times.
President Zelenskyy wrote to X on the 16th, "Our American friends are preparing security guarantees. But they said they would first exchange territory, and then security guarantees." He added, "I think — first we need security guarantees. Second, we will not give up territory because we are ready to compromise."
In an interview with the American website Axios on the 18th, Zelenskyy said, "Any plan that would require Ukraine to give up territory in the eastern Donbas region not occupied by Russia would be rejected by the Ukrainian people if put to a referendum," and that he rejected the U.S. envoy's demands in the Russian negotiations.
The US-Iran talks have reduced the likelihood of a complete breakdown in the Iranian nuclear program from a "blockade of negotiations" to a "complete breakdown" as the Iranian diplomatic team attempted to "reinforce nuclear talks and lift economic sanctions" in response to the special envoy's "blocking of nuclear talks and Israeli missile attacks," the Times reported. "Indirect talks between US and Iranian officials in Switzerland concluded on the 18th with an agreement on "guiding principles," and the Iranian Foreign Minister said the two sides agreed to exchange drafts of a potential agreement."
Iran insisted the talks be strictly limited to its nuclear program, but US officials said they would limit the range of Iran's ballistic missiles and its support for militias in the region." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, a negotiator, told Iranian state television that day that the three-hour talks in Geneva were "more constructive" and "made good progress" compared to previous negotiations in Oman this month. "Now we have a clearer path forward, and I think that's positive," he added.
The New York Times reported, "Mr. Araghchi said a deal was not imminent because the Middle East was nervous about a possible US attack if negotiations broke down."
The Iranian deal called for Iran to dilute its uranium stockpile in front of international inspectors, and in return, Iran demanded the US lift financial and banking sanctions and an embargo on its oil sales.
Negotiators told the Times that Iran was touting investment and trade opportunities with the US as financial incentives and lures, including Iran's oil and energy sectors.
The Iranian negotiating team targeted the Trump delegation, presenting the "investment and trade opportunities with the US" that the envoy and his son-in-law were pursuing as financial incentives and lures, and boldly included Iran's oil and energy sectors in the negotiations.
On the 13th, Iran's Foreign Minister threatened, "If attacked by the US military, Iran will attack US military bases in the Middle East." He then adopted a conciliatory stance on the 15th. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met privately with the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) before traveling to Geneva, and reached a tentative agreement to allow direct IAEA inspections.
Hamid Ghanbari, Deputy Director General for Economic Diplomacy at the Iranian Foreign Ministry, told Fars News Agency on the 15th, "For the agreement to remain sustainable, it is essential that the US also benefits in areas with high and rapid economic returns."
He added, "The negotiations include shared interests in oil and gas fields, joint oil fields, mining investments, and even aircraft purchases," separating the two axes of negotiations into "nuclear" and "economic sanctions."
Deputy Director Ganbara then targeted the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (P5+1), stating that the 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers failed to guarantee US economic interests, and declared that the Trump administration would "add US economic interests."
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was led by the US, UK, Russia, France, China, Germany, and the European Union (EU) through the UN under the Democratic administration. Trump, a Republican, abruptly abrogated it in 2017 after taking office, and bombed Iran's nuclear facilities during his second term last year.
Witkoff, a longtime friend of Trump's and now an "all-purpose ambassador," played a key role in securing a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas during the Gaza Strip war last year. However, little progress has been made toward a permanent solution to the unstable ceasefire, and diplomatic efforts he spearheaded with Iran and Russia have yielded little success to date. During Trump's first term, his son-in-law Kushner spearheaded the Abraham Accords, which established groundbreaking diplomatic relations between several Arab countries and Israel, and launched a $5 billion Palestinian reconstruction fund.
However, during the 13 months of Trump's second term, the Abraham Accords appear to have had little effect in resolving the war conflict through "early settlement." Reuters reported that Kushner and Witkoff's ability to conduct diplomatic affairs has been weakened in recent years as Trump has scaled back the State Department and the National Security Council's foreign policy apparatus, and some analysts say many veteran staffers have been let go.
"Trump seems more focused on quantity than on the hard, detailed work of diplomacy," Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration who now heads the strategic consulting firm Global Situation Room, told Reuters. "There's little point in trying to address both issues in the same place at the same time."
The Brussels talks on Thursday, held just four hours apart in the world's biggest conflicts, were hosted by Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi at the Omani ambassador's residence, while the Ukraine talks were held at the InterContinental Hotel. The Iran talks, which began earlier, were hosted by Badr al-Busaidi, the Omani ambassador's residence.
He has brokered previous rounds of talks between the U.S. and Iran, and an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said before the talks that "Omani officials will travel back and forth between the two sides."
After the talks, Omani Prime Minister al-Busaidi told X that "good progress has been made in identifying common objectives and related technical issues."
He wrote:
<The indirect negotiations between the Islamic Republic and the United States in Geneva today concluded with good progress in identifying common objectives and related technical issues.
The atmosphere of our meeting was constructive. Together, we worked earnestly to define several guiding principles for a final agreement.
The contribution of IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi was highly appreciated.
Much work remains to be done, and the parties left with clear next steps before the next meeting.>