Trump's failure to achieve early regime change in Iran, mobilizing weapons stationed overseas, fueling a "long-term war"

Trump's failure to achieve early regime change in Iran, mobilizing weapons stationed overseas, fueling a "long-term war"

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The Trump administration's war on Iranian regime change, orchestrated by the US Congress and the media, has been geared toward "a long-term extension of the failure to achieve early regime change," and has announced the activation of overseas weapons.

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President Trump announced on Sunday that the US military plans to continue its offensive against Iran for "four to five weeks" if necessary. He added that it would be "easy" for Israel and the US to maintain the intensity of the fighting, calling the "three dead soldiers" "too many" and suggesting the possibility of more American casualties.

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The New York Times reported on the 1st, "Just before the U.S. and Israel launched their attack on Iran, the CIA pinpointed the location of what was arguably the most important target: Khamenei. He was the country's supreme leader." The Times continued, "According to people familiar with the operation, the CIA had been tracking Ayatollah Khamenei for months, gaining increasing confidence in his location and pattern. Then, the agency learned that a meeting of senior Iranian officials would be held Saturday morning in the leadership district of central Tehran. Most importantly, the CIA knew the supreme leader would be there."

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Reuters reported on the 2nd that “three U.S. officials familiar with U.S. intelligence said there is serious skepticism that Iran’s battered opposition can topple the theocratic and authoritarian rule that has been in place since 1979.” The U.S. officials, speaking anonymously, said the Trump administration’s attempt to “collapse the Iranian government” was “not very likely or even certain in the short term.”

Reuters reported on the 28th that two sources had said that if Khamenei were killed, he could be replaced by hardliners from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or equally hardline clerics, referring to a CIA assessment submitted to the White House just weeks before the attack. The CIA report, written over two weeks and delivered to the White House ahead of the US-Israeli strike, warned that Khamenei could be replaced by hardliners from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) if “Khamenei is killed in action,” and offered a broad analysis of what could happen in Iran after a US intervention and the extent to which a military operation could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic.

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The Associated Press reported on the 2nd, "Trump administration officials said in a closed-door briefing Sunday that U.S. intelligence did not suggest Iran was preparing a preemptive strike against the United States, according to three people familiar with the briefing." Another official, however, described the strike as "a bombing based on months of intelligence tracking by the CIA."

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The AP reported, "This military operation came after Israeli and U.S. authorities tracked the movements of senior Iranian leaders, particularly Supreme Leader Khamenei, for weeks and shared intelligence that could lead to a surprise daytime strike, according to an Israeli military official and another person familiar with the operation."

The final U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran was so rapid and nearly simultaneous that three strikes struck within a minute at three locations, killing about 40 senior officials, including Khamenei, the head of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the defense minister, the Israeli military official said Sunday.

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The official added, "Several factors created the perfect opportunity to eliminate the Iranian leadership. Weeks of training, monitoring of senior officials' movements, and real-time intelligence gathering on key targets before the attack began. The 'daytime strike' provided the added element of surprise."

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The official told the AP that "many, large-scale, rapid strikes are crucial to prevent key officials from fleeing after the first strike." He added that Israel had been coordinating closely with the United States and used similar tactics in the early days of the war last June, killing several high-ranking Iranian officials.

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In a telephone interview with the New York Times, President Trump presented a different, more contradictory war plan, detailing how power would be transferred to a new administration, whether the existing Iranian power structure would run the government, or whether it would be overthrown.

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Trump insisted that the Pentagon would maintain sufficient troops, missiles, and bombs "if necessary" to sustain a military strike. When asked how long the US and Israel could sustain this level of attack, he replied, "We were aiming for four to five weeks."

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Responding to concerns about a shortage of stockpiles, he said, "It wouldn't be difficult," adding, "We have a ton of ammunition. As you know, we have ammunition stored in various countries around the world," referring to the "overseas stockpile" of US troops stationed overseas.

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In an interview with the British Daily Mail, prior to the New York Times, President Trump said, "The conflict with Iran could last for the next four weeks." He added, "It's always been a four-week process. We thought it would take about four weeks. It's always been a four-week process. No matter how strong they are, they're a big country, so it'll be over in four weeks, or even less." The British newspaper quoted Trump as saying this on Sunday.

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Following the British newspaper, Trump stated that he was "open to further talks with Iran," but did not specify whether they would happen "soon."

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In the Daily Mail interview, Trump said he "didn't know" about the timing of the talks with Iran, adding, "They want to talk, but I said you should have talked last week, not this week."

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Following the Saturday morning attacks, President Trump released a six-minute video on Truth Social Sunday, targeting the Iranian people. "They have waged war on civilization itself," he said. "We are undertaking this massive operation not only to ensure the safety of our time and place, but also for our children and their children, just as our ancestors did for us long ago. This is the duty and burden of a free people."

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Just 24 hours after first announcing Iranian leader Khamenei's death on camera, Trump urged, "I urge all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment. I promised you, and I kept that promise. You decide the rest, but we will help you."

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He called on the Iranian people to "collapse the regime."

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President Trump continued on Sunday in a video posted to Truth Social, stating, "Three American soldiers have died," and that "there are likely more casualties." He added, "We are avenging the deaths of Americans" and that "combat operations are continuing at full speed and will continue until all our objectives are met. We have very strong objectives."

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Earlier, in a Fox News interview, President Trump said, "Forty-eight leaders have been killed in the US-Israeli attack on Iran." He added, "It's happening. It's happening fast. This has been going on for 47 years." He continued, "It's happening fast. No one can believe the success we've had. Forty-eight leaders gone in one fell swoop. And it's happening fast."

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The Washington Post reported on the 1st, "U.S. administration officials appear on television programs almost every Sunday morning, but none of them did this time." "Instead of having administration officials on camera, the White House coordinated its message with congressional Republicans to speak on the air, and offered Secretary of State Marco Rubio a briefing on Saturday evening."

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Arkansas Republican Senator Tom Cotton said on CBS's "Face the Nation" on Sunday, "The president's eight-minute video yesterday was truly remarkable. It detailed Iran's 47-year campaign of terror and revolutionary violence against the United States, our people, and the civilized world. I'm sure the president will have more to say and brief Congress in the coming days."

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The secret war briefing to Congress is scheduled for Tuesday (the 3rd).

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Elliot Abrams, who directed Iran policy in the first Trump administration and worked on foreign policy in the George W. Bush administration and the Republican Reagan administration during the Iraq War, told the Washington Post, "The question is whether this is good policy, and that will depend in part on American casualties. I caution critics that if this war ends in a week and the regime still holds on, it's too early to call it a failure."

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He continued, “If that regime falls in six months, 10 months, or next year, everyone will have to recognize that this war brought it much closer, and in retrospect, it would have been a huge success,” adding that a “long-term war is possible.”

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In a phone call with the New York Times, President Trump said there were “three very good options” for Iran’s leader, but declined to name them.

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However, early Sunday, the day after the attacks, just before the call, Iran’s top national security official, Ali Larijani, announced that an interim council would run the country until a successor to the supreme leader was chosen.

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The New York Times reported that “Mr. Larijani oversaw the abrupt termination of nuclear negotiations with the United States and was sanctioned by the Trump administration in January for his role in the crackdown on anti-government protests.” “President Trump did not answer questions about whether he believed Larijani could lead the Iranian government.”

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President Trump went on to say he hopes Iran's elite military—including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers who wielded significant influence and profited from the previous regime—will simply "hand over their weapons to the Iranian people," adding, "If you think about it, they're really going to surrender to the Iranian people."

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Iranian security forces, led by the Basij militia, attempted to suppress street protests in January with gunfire.

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President Trump then reiterated his experience in Venezuela, where he ordered Delta Force teams to arrest Maduro, to the New York Times, applying it to an attack on Iran, saying, "What we did in Venezuela, I think, was a perfect, perfect scenario."

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"In a country of 90 million people, a regime collapse could spark factional conflict, economic turmoil, and a refugee influx. Hardliners within the security apparatus could attempt to consolidate power under emergency rule, and nationalist narratives could spread, portraying external actors as opportunistic meddlers," Yuraktiv said on the 1st. "The unprecedented joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran have shifted strategic calculations, and the power vacuum will be quickly filled."

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Yuraktiv continued, "In the hours immediately following the attack, opposition figures were already establishing themselves, demanding a transitional council and democratic elections. They claim that, unlike previous unrest, an organized leadership is ready to intervene." "It remains unclear whether this claim has been fully realized. What is certain is that as events on the ground accelerate, the window for external influence narrows."

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Yutaktiv stated, "There was a direct hit, particularly on the security headquarters located in the capital, including the Law Enforcement Command's Special Forces facility, known by its Persian acronym FARAJA." "These units have long served as the regime's internal firewall. The Faraj brigades, comprised of three tiers—maintaining regular command, irregular emergency, and large-scale disruption—are designed for speed, coordination, and intimidation, including Amir al-Momenin and Imam Hossein."

Yutaktiv continued, "In recent years, they have refined their tactics, centered around motorcycle battalions and light armored vehicles, enabling rapid deployment to protest areas. Their objective is clear: to prevent dissent from coalescing into a powerful force. If headquarters and senior leadership are indeed significantly weakened, the impact is not only operational but also psychological, and these units vary depending on their hierarchical structure."

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See <Trump's Reckless War Negotiations, Late-Night Social Media Bombardment, and Regime Change 'Amplification', March 1, 2026>