Trump's Power-Based War on Iran: Failure of 'Submission' Replaced by 'Cost Expansion,' Iran Gains the 'Turnaround'

Trump's Power-Based War on Iran: Failure of 'Submission' Replaced by 'Cost Expansion,' Iran Gains the 'Turnaround'

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As demands for 'submission' failed in the Trump administration's power-based war, Iran shifted the war conditions toward cost expansion, gaining the upper hand in a pain-suffering scenario, leading to a series of analyses regarding the U.S.'s failure to maintain control.

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An official from the International Crisis Group stated, "Trump has lost control over the situation within Iran," while the Iran director at the Brookings Institute revealed, "Iran believes it is winning, and its strategy is to increase pain for the U.S. and Israel to prevent them from taking further action, thereby eliminating the fear of another attack."

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Susan Maloney, Vice President and Director of the Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institute, stated in an interview on the 1st regarding Iran, "They were very prepared this time." She added, "What they want is to raise the level of pain sufficiently so that the U.S. and Israel do not take further action, so that they can rebuild and consolidate power without fear that another attack is lurking." As one of Washington's leading Iran experts, he has advised various Democratic and Republican administrations, authored and edited numerous books on Iran, and was the first in the U.S. to bluntly declare, "I think Iran is winning this war," explaining the reasons in detail on "The Ezra Klein Show."

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On the 23rd of last month, at the Central Integrated Defense Council, President Lee Jae-myung stated, "The most important aspect of integrated defense capabilities for national security is, of course, national defense."

He noted that "the international situation is very complex and fluid," and that "at times like these, a national-level integrated defense system is more important than ever." He announced plans to strengthen the Trump administration's "peace based on strength" policy through the "highest possible national defense spending and arms buildup."

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Through a summit with President Trump, President Lee adopted a strategy of "mediating North Korea-US dialogue" by achieving an "8% GDP growth rate" and expanding investment in the defense industry, all while pursuing an arms buildup that follows "peace based on strength." Meanwhile, North Korea announced "severance of relations" as part of its "hostile state policy."

Vice President Maloney stated on a podcast, “Iran has the luxury of waiting. Although they have already suffered massive losses to their leadership and a terrible impact on cities across Iran, they effectively have the advantage of time now.”

He added, “As the standoff continues day by day, the impact on the global economy will grow, which will directly affect President Trump’s political standing, harm all of America’s partners and allies, create massive constraints on Asia, and when the U.S. engages in diplomacy, it will hear from all partners and allies that they want this war to end.”

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He continued, “So for the Iranians, this is an existential crisis. They are prepared to wait as long as possible. Now, the real question is, who will blink first?”

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He specifically noted, “As long as the Iranian regime remains in power, there is virtually no way for the U.S. to resolve the strait militarily.” He stated, “Trump does not seem to fully recognize the potential repercussions of an attack on Iran. There is no way to remove the regime and quickly transition to a more U.S.-friendly alternative. Such a thing does not exist within the Islamic Republic.” Regarding ‘Iran’s direction in contributing to global security,’ he stated, “Even though the economy has been hit and thousands of citizens have been lost, it appears that they can actually achieve their goal of becoming stronger by the end of this war.”

He added, “I believe that the fact that they can endure the worst situations given to them by two technologically and economically superior enemies and emerge victorious will give tremendous courage to a regime that was very dangerous even during its weak times.” Ali Baez, head of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, stated in an op-ed for the NYT titled *Trump Has Lost Control Over the Situation in Iran* that Iran has "succeeded in blocking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz." He described this as Iran "seizing the upper hand," noting that "it has responded to the only stage where weaker nations often seek leverage against stronger ones, and by changing the conditions of competition rather than confronting with force, Iran may not win in traditional military exchanges, but it could prolong the conflict, escalate costs, disrupt the global economy, and incur greater costs than the architects anticipated for the exercise of power by the U.S. and Israel."

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Regarding Trump's strategy of a power-based war, he stated, "(Iran) has shown in the process that a weakened military and a severely damaged state do not need weapons of mass destruction to hold an enemy hostage." He added, "The central question of this war was never whether Iran could suffer damage, but whether suffering would lead to submission, and so far, the results have shown that this has not been the case."

He continued, “The notion that a regime change has been achieved is refuted by the fact that one Khamenei has been replaced by another; most of the high-ranking political class remains intact, and power is becoming concentrated among more hardline military figures.” He stated, “Despite the weakening of Iran’s military power, Tehran was able to launch regular drone and missile attacks against Israel and its Persian Gulf allies even on the 2nd, the day after Trump’s speech.”

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He specifically described the process as a decline, noting, “President Trump was correct in saying on the 1st that the U.S. had won every tactical exchange with Iran, but what he failed to acknowledge was that, even as Commander-in-Chief, he still had lost control of the situation.” He added, “In reality, wars often devolve from hopes of a quick and decisive victory into a longer and more uncertain struggle. It is not a sudden defeat, but a series of so-called essential steps, each presented as a final push, making a retreat politically more difficult and strategic clarity more challenging.” Deputy Director Maloney stated, “One of their concerns regarding the preemptive end of this war is that it is merely a prelude to another attack, which is exactly what they (Iran) experienced in the surprise bombing in June 2025.”

He added, “They were waiting for the next round, they understood that it was approaching, and they studied the war in June, and they also studied how the U.S. conducted wars in other parts of the region, particularly in Iraq.” He continued, “The Islamic Republic was destined to collapse due to military operations by the United States and Israel,” adding, “When that did not happen, it seems the President had virtually no other choice. It is clear that he has continued his campaign and, from a foresight perspective, is aware of the impact that a ‘perpetual war’ has on the American people and economy. This has been a long-standing trend and theme throughout his political career, though it was a covert and limited method intended for the decapitation strikes or other very small-scale operations he frequently used in military action during his second term; however, he does not seem to have fully recognized the potential repercussions of an attack on Iran.”

He stated, “There is no way to remove the Iranian regime and rapidly transition to a replacement force more friendly to the United States. Such a thing does not exist within the Islamic Republic.” In response to a question regarding a "U.S. ground operation to occupy Karg Island," he stated, "The idea of occupying Karg Island or Keshm Island, or parts of the Iranian coastline—which are also large and strategically located in the Gulf region—sounds great in theory, but in reality, it does not solve the problem quickly or cleanly, and there is a high probability of many casualties for the United States." He added, "I think all of this emphasizes that there was no proper plan for this military operation."

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He continued, "President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu seem to be coming up with some kind of magical idea, given that their regime has been significantly weakened by internal protests." He noted, "As the President said, the June War would completely destroy the nuclear program; and as Iranian proxy militias have weakened in the region over the past few years, they claimed it would collapse on day one, day two, and day three, but that did not happen, and in the current situation, that possibility seems low. Therefore, we are left with only very bad options: bad diplomatic options and bad military options."

In response to the question, “Who is in charge in Iran?” he stated, “It is still several officials with high-level military experience who effectively run the government. The administrative aspect of Iranian governance is still led by the president elected a few years ago following the death of another potential Supreme Leader candidate; although he has almost no power, he can continue to operate the system. The key figures are military officials.”

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He continued, “Moztaba Khamenei, who was appointed Supreme Leader and issued several statements, has not appeared in public. While various rumors are circulating regarding his health, they are practically of little importance right now, and ‘Moztaba’ may remain a sort of code.”

He added, “He can govern from a distance because the government is effectively run by military officials. The system his father created has made this highly institutionalized, and the Supreme Leader has appointed representatives to every administrative department of the government, and they will continue to run the country in accordance with the vision of the Islamic Republic.”

He continued, “If Mojtaba does not appear in public and is known to be seriously injured—of course, since his father lost his right hand in a severe terrorist attack early in his career—this aligns with the themes of martyrdom and sacrifice, which are very important to this regime,” adding, “Therefore, I do not think the shift in the balance of power from the clergy to the military is actually a matter of legitimacy, but rather a direction in which the current regime is becoming more dominant.”

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