In the next year’s economic downturn, US investors’ small-cap stocks, British stocks, gold

In preparation for next year's economic recession, American investors have put forward their preferred targets in the stock market as 'small-cap stocks, British stocks, and gold'.
US investment banks and private equity fund managers, including JP Morgan, Citi and BlackRock, believed in the possibility of a recession in 2023, saying, “a massive monetary tightening by the Fed, a sharp slowdown in the housing market, and an inverted Treasury yield curve will stagnate growth.” It is expected to be,” he said in a report on small-cap stocks and British stocks rather than the US, gold investment in the depreciation of the dollar.
Reuters reported on the 3rd, “Many on Wall Street are increasing allocations to market areas known for outperforming in an uncertain economy,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Cressett Capital, “Investors will see a recession coming. “We expect a moderate recession in 2023 and anticipate the Fed’s easing policy,” he reported.
“The U.S. economy is growing at a moderate pace, we expect a so-called soft landing, and higher interest rates will strain consumers without completely curbing spending,” said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers. “We put a price on a recession. “Russell (RUT), an optimistic small-cap US stock that thinks it is, is down about 16% this year.”
The market "looks a little offside with the consensus that a recession is inevitable," he told Reuters on the 3rd, "the road to a soft landing is probably wider than the current consensus view."
Analysts at JP Morgan called "a mild recession" and with the S&P 500 testing 2022 lows in the first quarter of next year, above-average valuations and the hawkish nature of the Fed make "US stocks unattractive compared to other developed markets." diagnosed and identified UK stocks as “the best choice”.
“While we expect US equities to end largely flat next year, we expect gold prices to rise by up to 20% thanks to a declining dollar,” said the BoFA Global Institute. "It's more attractive to foreign buyers when it's down," he said.
Data from CFRA Research shows that the S&P 500 is down 25.2% from its all-time high this year, close to an average decline of 28% due to the post-World War II recession, and the index is down 14.6% year-to-date.
The US Inflation Report showed that consumer prices rose 7.7% in November from a year ago.
The US employment report for November showed employers adding 263,000 jobs, a significant increase far exceeding economists' expectations.
Unusually, solid wage growth in the United States further strengthened inflationary pressures, which the Fed is struggling to contain, while maintaining high employment with an unemployment rate of 3.7%, close to the half-century low of 3.5%.
U.S. employment added a record 6.7 million jobs last year, averaging 457,000 jobs added per month from January to July this year, and has declined to an average of 277,000 per month from August to November, when the Fed raised interest rates by 0.75% in the boom. All.
Wage growth supported continued inflation as average hourly wages rose 0.6% from October to November, the highest monthly increase since January.
Average U.S. wages have risen more than expected by 5.1% over the past 12 months, the Associated Press reported on the 3rd.
U.S. wage growth strengthened in November in retail, transportation, warehousing and some tech jobs (information) sectors, and Thomas Pelmet, chief economist at TD Economics, said: "The rate of wage growth will continue to rise until we see a meaningful normalization of labor demand." ", he told the AP.
U.S. employment fell by 2,600 jobs at homebuilders alone as the housing market slowed, from 62,000 in restaurants and bars (services), 45,000 in the healthcare industry, 14,000 in factories and 20,000 construction workers.
The U.S. Department of Labor Employment Survey found that the number of “employed” respondents in the “Household Survey” decreased by 328,000 in October and decreased by 138,000 in November, in contrast to the addition of 263,000 jobs in the “Company Survey.”
The AP is an 'Establishment Survey', the Business Survey, which tracks job additions across the economy, and the 'Household Survey,' which measures the unemployment rate and measures whether adults living in a household have a job, so if you do not have a job but are looking for a job, you are 'unemployed', not working. If you do not have a job but do not find a job, you are classified as 'non-employed'.
In the “household survey” of the unemployment rate, “employment at small and medium-sized enterprises” is more accurate than the “corporate survey,” such as farm workers, self-employed workers, and new company workers.
In the United States, the number of people who have jobs or are looking for jobs (total labor force) actually decreased by 186,000 in November, a decline for three consecutive months.
This figure is slightly lower than in February 2020, at the beginning of the corona, and the proportion of the adult population in the labor force (participation rate) was 62.1% in November, which is much lower than the 63.4% before the corona, showing a 'sudden decline in the available labor force'. .
The AP cited “early retirement, reduced immigration, corona deaths, and a decrease in affordable childcare facilities” as the causes of the “lack of available workers” in the United States.
The AP diagnosed the turbulence of next year's inflation, saying, "The labor shortage represents frustration in the fight against inflation" in 2023, and "If employers have more workers to choose from, the pressure to raise wages will decrease, contributing to inflationary pressure." did.