Trade deficit doubles year-on-year, securities companies focusing on boosting the defense industry and semiconductor economy

Trade deficit doubles year-on-year, securities companies focusing on boosting the defense industry and semiconductor economy

With the trade deficit already doubling year-on-year in June, securities companies are leading the rise in the stock market with economic stimulus reports on the defense and semiconductor sectors in response to the government's September trade surplus reversal policy.
The trade deficit as of June 10 of the relevant authorities was 28.847 billion dollars, which has already more than doubled from the same period last year (14.395 billion dollars).
Even on June 10, semiconductors (-31.1%) and petroleum products (-35.8%) led the decrease in exports, recording a trade deficit of $1.41 billion.
Regarding arms exports, securities firms released reports on the 10th of the “defense trade surplus” and “600 billion won deposits” in the transfer system of manufacturing base for US-style Korean weapons without payment through Poland’s export financing support and offset trade to Korea.
The Polish Ministry of National Defense announced on the 6th that Defense Minister Mariusz Włášczák requested a “financial plan” from South Korea through the signing of the “Joint Consultation for Cooperation in the Defense and Defense Industry” agreement with Lim Jong-deuk, 2nd Deputy National Security Minister, and Eom Dong-hwan, Director of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, on the same day.
Poland's 'financial plan' for Korea is similar to the '10-20 year long-term low-interest loan from the Export-Import Bank of Korea' in the Egyptian K-9 contract, first handing over manufacturing weapons, and Korean banks paying back funds according to government guarantees. Depending on the method, South Korea paid 12 trillion won in the first arms deal.
Immediately after the meeting, Minister Błashchak said on social media, “The Ministry of Defense negotiated a good price for Korean equipment. What remains is a matter of filling the financial plan,” he formulated on the 6th.
Immediately after signing the agreement with the President's Office and the Defense Agency, Minister Błaszczak returned to Poland after meeting officials from domestic defense companies such as Hyundai Rotem.
SBS said Poland requested “17 trillion won” as a secondary financial aid, and “in this process, our government
Reported on the 5th, it was confirmed as a result of SBS coverage that it provided financial support for up to 70% of the order amount to Poland.
The DAPA announced 'maintaining low cost without original royalty intellectual property rights' as a Korean defense industry production system based on US weapon design and parts-based improved products such as K-9 FA-50GF KF-21, and The contractual relationship was not disclosed.
First Vice Minister of Industry Jang Young-jin told reporters on the 22nd of last month, “Exports in the second half of the year will turn into a monthly surplus,” and “It could be September or it could be August.” Although there are few parts that are captured by export performance after becoming a company, in the defense sector, some companies have recently hired 500 people,” he said.
Deputy Prime Minister Choo Kyung-ho said in an answer to the National Assembly on the 21st of last month, “In the second half of the year, we will be able to see a different performance.”
Hanwha Investment & Securities Lim Hye-yoon's report said on the 2nd, "The rebound in semiconductor exports continues. From March to May, the unit price and volume of semiconductor exports exceeded the level at the beginning of the year. In particular, in May, both unit price and volume improved compared to the previous month, and the semiconductor industry was at its worst. passed the phase,” and announced a “recommendation to buy Samsung stocks” as “the inventory peak passed in May.”
Han Dong-hee, a researcher at SK Securities, said, “From the second half of this year, the recovery of DDR5 (DRAM) market share and the drop in inventory resulting from production cuts will accelerate earnings improvement,” raising the target price of Samsung Electronics from 80,000 won to 90,000 won.
Eugene Investment & Securities' report on the defense industry is 'estimated delivery of a total of 48 K-9 self-propelled howitzers by the first quarter' in arms exports to Poland, 'tanks and other armored vehicles' exported to Poland from January to April according to trade association statistics 55 million dollars'.
The NH Investment & Securities report said, “After the first contract for a total of 180 K-2 tanks, including 10 units last year, 18 units this year, 56 units in 2024, and 96 units in 2025, 820 units in the second half of this year Additional contracts will be concluded,” he said. “The first 24 K-9s delivered at the end of last year, 24 units in 2023, 82 units in 2024, and 82 units in 2025 will be sequentially exported to Poland, and a second contract is scheduled at the end of this year.” said.
At the end of last month, the DAPA had an interview with an official from the state defense industry group PGZ, a contract for arms sales, in Poland, and signed a purchase memorandum of understanding as a 'general contract' rather than a 'sales contract' at the request of "new joint research and development of a Korean-made K808 'Baekho' wheeled armored vehicle". It was revealed to some media that the level was exchanged.
Regarding Poland’s offset trade, Yonhap News said, “It is conditional trade that requires a certain reciprocal payment when purchasing goods or services from a foreign country. It was reported on the 10th as suggesting that trade can proceed.
The DAPA avoided disclosing information on the unit price of weapons from the beginning of the Polish arms contract, and announced the 'master contract' and the construction of a Korean-style joint base for American standard weapons in Poland, and Poland received and received weapons only through a general contract as a preliminary stage. It seems to have attempted a 'non-sale contract' for .
An official from the DAPA said, "The general contract is at the level of having a purchase intention, and it can be seen that it has become an actual contract only when an implementation contract is signed."
Most of the media reports on the 11th as 'deposit of 600 billion won for weapons in Poland', and "according to the statistics of the Trade Association" quoted in the stock market report, "accumulated exports of 456 million dollars (approximately 600 billion won) from last year to April of this year" It has reached," he said.
Sebastian Hwaweck, chairman of PGZ, a Polish state-run defense industry, said on November 29 last year, “I would be happy if I could participate in the KF-21 project. said,” the Chosun Ilbo reported on December 9.
Korea's KF-21 will expand supply through Korea and Europe for K-16 production, which the United States has stopped producing from 2024, and Korea announced its goal for 2026.
In the case of the K-16, the original manufacturer in the United States has the same profit structure as the basic production cost for the upgrade cost for deploying fighters, and Korea basically invests production facilities in Poland, etc. It guarantees more than three times by generating actual profits, and a similar method is applied to K-9 self-propelled guns and tanks.
The Polish PGZ chairman visited Korea on April 17, and from that day, the business potential of related domestic defense companies was highlighted again, and they all showed strength.
Immediately after opening on the morning of the day, Hyundai Rotem was traded at 28,150 won, up 3.30% from the previous trading day, Hanwha Aerospace rose 2.69% to 117,000 won, and Korea Aerospace Industries was 52,400 won, up 2.54%. has risen
Regarding the ‘peak in May’ of securities companies and the government’s semiconductor inventory, the National Statistics Portal (KOSIS) of the National Statistical Office announced that the semiconductor inventory index (2020 = 100) in April was 246.5, the highest ever.
The semiconductor inventory index exceeded 190 in January, soared to 197.1 in February, 187.4 in March, and 246.5 in April.
According to the National Statistical Office’s ‘Industrial Activity Trend’, semiconductor shipments in April decreased by 20.3% compared to the previous month, inventory soared by 31.5% compared to the previous month, and manufacturing inventory ratio increased by 13.2%p compared to the previous month from 130.4%, all of which are record highs (statistics started in 1985).
Contrary to the government's assertion that inventory peaked in May, the Korea Customs Service announced on the 12th that the daily average export value of 'June 1-10 import and export' decreased by 6.0% compared to the same period last year. Exports were semiconductors (-31.1%) and petroleum products (-35.8%). ), and their dependence on automobiles grew, filling the export vacuum with passenger cars (137.1%), ships (161.5%), and auto parts (16.9%), but the trade deficit was $1.41 billion.
Since January, the cumulative trade deficit of $28.847 billion has already more than doubled from the same period last year ($14.395 billion).
Arms trade between Poland and South Korea shows a typical arms broker transaction under the “Comprehensive Contract Excluding Arms Unit Price,” in which royalty payments from the United States are eliminated.

The transaction shows the collaboration of the government securities company and the media.