Prigozhin provocation in Putin’s ‘personalization system’, duplication of investigative agencies is a ‘tool’
It seems that President Putin created a situation in the world with the provocation of Prigojin mercenaries using the Ukraine war as a stepping stone in the’personalization system’, which made the parliamentary press and intelligence agencies into an automatic elimination system of competitors.
The Prigozhin Rebellion case condensed the results of key power systems such as the parliament, courts, media and intelligence agencies losing their own influence and degenerating into sub-tools of internal play due to the Putin regime’s “instrumentalization of the redundant investigative agency system.”
The New York Times quoted people who knew Putin well as saying, “The president has always been accustomed to the personalized system because he has been able to entrust key tasks to a trusted inner circle while preventing the rise of rival factions that could undermine him.” “He diagnosed the cause of the situation.
The NYT said, “This incident was a striking result of the informal power structure that President Putin built during his 23 years of ruling Russia.” "It confirms that he personally holds the key to wealth and influence in modern Russia."
“Putin underestimated the threat posed by Prigozhin,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior research fellow at the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia.
Analysts told the NYT that Putin's patience with Prigozhin's outbursts this year served his political purposes, concluding that Prigozhin's verbal attacks on senior Russian officials discouraged Russian officials and that Prigozhin enjoyed Putin's tacit support. said.
Even when Prigozhin started an armed rebellion, he insisted on his loyalty to Putin, saying that "this is not a coup" and that "the presidential powers will remain intact", which made Prigozhin even bolder.
"The confusion over Putin's personal views continued until the morning of the 24th, when he gave a five-minute speech describing Prigozhin as a traitor and declaring that he would suppress an uprising started by the paramilitary leader," said the NYT's Moscow bureau chief.
Putin's 'silent power' has long fostered political ambiguity as a trademark of governance, and in the meantime, conflicts between elites are tolerated and even encouraged because they keep potential rivals in check, and thus ultimate authority always rests with the president himself. A personalized system has been established.
As a result, Putin’s regime is advertised as if it always thrives in chaos, and then the “threat of elimination” becomes powerful.
Prigozhin's provocation came from a relationship in which he owed his power and position to President Putin's informal and individualistic style.
Putin's powers began to use ruthless violence to crush the 'oligarchs' who wielded enormous influence under President Boris N. Yeltsin in the 1990s, and then allowed rival groups to fester, 'overlapping responsibilities'. With the strengthening of the system, internal power has been personalized with a 'redundant investigative power system' in which the Investigation Committee, the Attorney General and the Federal Security Service are simultaneously involved in criminal investigations in fostering security agencies.
Regarding the duplication and personalization of the rhetoric, one of Russia's tycoons, requesting anonymity, told the NYT, "I reflect on Prigozhin's rise, but Putin's approach to rule has always been 'divide and conquer'." "You never know who's going to arrest you," he told the NYT.
Prigozhin waged an "information war against the United States" with Internet "troll factories" after Putin's regime attempted to support Republican Donald J. Trump in the 2016 US presidential election, according to the NYT.
Having established himself as a 'ruthless fixer' in 2000's restaurant owner and personal ties to Putin, as Russia seeks to expand its influence in Syria and Africa, he deploys the growing Wagnerian mercenaries to the region, allowing the Putin regime to maintain power while minimizing the use of active troops. private military corporations (PMCs) were strengthened to project
Under Putin, Prigozhin was allowed to show off his personal ties under a personalized power structure, harnessing his personal ties to lucrative government contracts and burgeoning as a ruthless all-purpose problem solver for the Kremlin.
As for why Putin didn't finally stop Prigozhin's social media attacks on the Pentagon, some analysts told the New York Times that "Putin saw him as a useful figure."
Andrei Soldatov, a Russian intelligence expert and senior research fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said:“In Russia, even the most disastrous wars produce very popular generals, so you need a very weak and compromised person to represent the military politically,” he said. “Putin's plan was to keep Prigozhin talking, but he miscalculated.” He told the NYT.
The result was a rush to quell a rebellion that President Putin warned on the 24th that "could lead to anarchy and fratricidal killings," but which Prigozhin eventually recognized as the creation of the Russian president himself.
Russian military security expert Mark Galeotti told the NYT that "Prigozin had no truly independent power base outside of the president's favor," but "but this undermines Putin's credibility and legitimacy."
Throughout the provocation drama, there were no immediate indications that the Putin regime's grip on power would collapse, and none of the Russian elite openly sided with Prigozhin.
Among other powerful leaders in the Putin regime's informal power structure, paramilitary leader Ramzan Kadyrov, dictator of southern Chechnya, has expressed support for Putin.
The progress of the mediation deal signed with Belarusian President Alexander G. Lukashenko was unclear, but the announcement of a “brokering agreement” to defuse the crisis late on the 24th calmed the provocation and Prigozhin headed for Belarus.
A striking result of the informal power structure built by President Putin's 23-year rule in Russia, the event affirmed that the individual holds the key to wealth and influence in securing unrivaled power and authority.