Next year's elections in 50 countries around the world will lead to a decline in trade, leading to a ‘vicious cycle’ of US election intervention.
Next year, elections will be held in 50 countries around the world amidst two wars, and in November, there will be a polarized US presidential election, so each country is attempting to intervene in the US election.
In 2024, the Taiwanese election in January will be a turning point in the 'U.S.-China conflict', and voting will be held in about 50 countries, including India and Indonesia, the largest elections, Korea, Mexico, South Africa, the United States, and the 27 European Union countries, and these countries account for 60% of global economic production. do.
For most countries around the world, a revamp of economic policy is inevitable as a result of elections in a vicious cycle of declining trade, decreasing income, and increasing debt.
January's election will determine Taiwan's president, rising tensions between the United States and China, followed shortly by Mexico to determine the government's approach to energy and foreign investment, and Indonesian elections will determine policy for the key mineral nickel.
Ahead of the elections next November, the United States and the European Union agreed to suspend tariffs on European steel and aluminum and American whiskey and motorcycles until after the elections.
Democratic President Biden took a hard-line stance on trade negotiations targeting the election, and former President Trump, the Republican candidate, advocated 'protectionist policies' and imposed a 10% tariff on all goods entering the United States to prevent retaliation from other countries and Conflicting militant measures were taken first.
U.S. intelligence agencies released a report on the 2022 midterm elections last week.
“The intelligence report concluded that Russia supported Trump in 2016,” he said of the report. “China has traditionally had a narrower focus on local politicians who take positions on Tibet, Taiwan or other similar issues, but this situation That could change soon,” the New York Times reported on the 24th.
The report, which makes it not entirely clear what China will do or what side it will take in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, said Chinese leaders saw the 2022 election as an opportunity to portray the U.S. model as a deranged It was made public by deleting the topic of the report sentence that followed and stated, “It was correct.”
Regarding the deleted part, the NYT asked, “What role can artificial intelligence play?” and added, “China has already begun experimenting with artificial intelligence in influence campaigns. Industry experts say new technologies can make it easier for foreign countries to imitate native English speakers and create messages that amplify existing divisions more quickly.”
The intelligence report examines countries other than China and Russia that may have an interest in or influence U.S. voting.
In Cuba's case, the report said the United States attempted to interfere in some 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections in hopes of lifting sanctions against its government, details of which were redacted.
The report on Cuba said officials in Cuba focused on Florida politicians because Miami's Cuban-American community exerts enormous influence on policy toward Cuba.
The report said Iran supported several false campaigns aimed at boosting progressive candidates on Twitter and other social media platforms. Some of these fake accounts even amplified pro-Palestinian sentiments.
The NYT said in a report, “China appears poised to support a more aggressive campaign,” and “other countries, such as Iran, will again try to sow seeds of division in the United States.”
Regarding Russian intervention in the US elections, which blatantly supported the Trump Republican Party in the 2016 presidential election, the report said, “In the 2022 midterm elections, Russia will denigrate the Democratic Party, including amplifying allegations of corruption by President Biden’s family due to the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine. “I tried to do it,” he said.
Russia is considering delaying its withdrawal from the southern Kherson region to avoid giving Ukraine's supporters in the United States a "pre-election victory" over the war in Ukraine in 2022 elections, the report said.
Russia eventually announced its withdrawal one day after the election.
As Republican opposition to U.S. funding for Ukraine grows, U.S. officials believe Moscow is likely to seek further intervention in 2024.
Russia has long sought to influence American political debate on divisive issues.
Former President Trump, the leading Republican presidential candidate, announced his stance to strengthen confrontation with China by reducing funding to Ukraine.
Democratic President Biden has argued that supporting Ukraine serves U.S. interests.
In an article on an intelligence report, the NYT said, “Bipartisan support for Ukraine remains, but Russia is focusing on weakening the Democratic Party to prevent the United States from providing more aid in the future.”
Drone and missile attacks carried out by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea are another sign of deepening divisions.
“The outcome of the U.S. election could lead to far-reaching changes on domestic and foreign policy issues, including climate change, regulation and global alliances,” consulting firm EY-Parthenon said in a recent report.
“The past few months have seen an increase in the number of smaller states, such as Yemen, Hamas, Azerbaijan and Venezuela, seeking to change the status quo,” said Courtney Rickert McCaffrey, geopolitical analyst at EY-Parthenon. “Even if these conflicts are small in scale, they “It can impact global supply chains in unexpected ways, and geopolitical forces are becoming more and more dispersed,” he told the NYT, predicting “expanding volatility” next year.
Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said of the attacks on ships from around the world by Houthi rebels in the Bab-el-Mandeb (Gate of Sorrows) Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. “The impact of the attack has been limited so far and from an economic perspective it is unlikely to cause a significant increase in oil and gas prices,” he told the New York Times. “The attack is the most obvious near-term flashpoint.”
In next year's election, new technologies could allow artificial intelligence to more easily mimic native language while generating messages that amplify existing divisions more quickly.
In an attack on voting systems in 2016, Russian hackers aimed to hack local governments' computer networks to meaningfully influence vote tallies.
In particular, next year's election will see China's economy, which was in ruins after the end of the war, formalized as the world's second largest economy under the post-World War II support economic system led by the United States and Europe, and India, which was a British colony in the early days of the IMF system, become the world's fifth largest economy. has changed.
China has become the engine of global growth and a hub for global industrial machinery and major supply chains, and more than three-quarters of the member countries of the IMF and World Bank, led by the United States, did not participate in the postwar security support economic system.
Next year's elections will be held with growing distrust in governments, deeply divided voters, and deep and persistent anxiety about the economic outlook, with the impact of elections across countries being closely interconnected.
The president-elect will directly empower critical policy decisions affecting factory subsidies, tax breaks, technology transfer, artificial intelligence development, regulatory controls, trade barriers, investment, debt relief, and the energy transition.
Diane Coyle, professor of public policy at the University of Cambridge, said: “An election victory that brings angry populists to power could push governments towards tightening controls on trade, foreign investment and immigration, and such policies could make the global economy look ‘like we’re used to’. “It could lead us into a very different world from the one we came from,” he said, adding that skepticism about globalization in many regions is growing due to stagnant incomes, falling standards of living, and deepening inequality, raising the possibility of a “vicious cycle of a world in which trade decreases and income decreases.” .
The NYT said, “Unlike many economists who have compared recent economic events with the 1970s, they compared them with the ‘1930s of populist trade decline and extreme politics’ of political upheaval and financial imbalance during the Great Depression.”
NYT said, “The global economic outlook for next year is mixed. “Growth is still slow in most parts of the world, and dozens of developing countries are at risk of defaulting on their sovereign debt,” he said. “President Trump, who has repeatedly made authoritarian remarks, is taking a step back from the partnership between the United States and Europe and is taking a step back from the partnership with Ukraine.” “We announced that we would withdraw support for China and take a more confrontational stance toward China,” he said.
The 1979 U.S. presidential election, in which the Republican-Democratic conflict became extreme due to the Iranian embassy hostage crisis, was an 'October surprise' for Republican strategists, with the CIA system dealing with Iran and incumbent President Kato of the Democratic Party losing the election, and the opposition Republican Party's support. During the Park Chung-hee regime, Kim Jae-gyu, head of the Central Intelligence Agency, attempted to assassinate the president on October 26, but suffered upheaval when the Chun Doo-hwan regime was incorporated into the establishment of the hard-line conservative system of Republican Reagan, who won the election.
From the beginning of its administration, Yoon Seok-yeol's regime, in strategic cooperation with the Heritage Foundation, which established the Reagan system in 1980, moved from a hard-line conservative policy of the pro-Republican Party to a wave of 'if Biden loses' right after the New York meeting with President Biden, approaching 'support for Trump' in the US presidential election. It shows interference in the US presidential election.
Moon Jae-in's regime participated in the CIA project for the North Korea-US summit and took the lead in 'supporting Trump's re-election', but sank when the Biden Democratic Party system was elected, and the Korean media continued to make 'Trump influential' the tone in next year's US presidential election, following 2018. The Hankyoreh also joined in ‘supporting the election of hard-line conservatives in the Republican Party.’
<Domestic support declines, Biden's Middle East negotiations 'failure' Yoon Seok-yeol regime's Republican Party 'supports', July 17, 2022> <Driver mediator 'linked' to CIA's North Korea regime strategy, September 14, 2020> <Singapore North Korea-US summit is CIA Confirmation by KMC Center Director as a project, dated May 13, 2021>