US trade conflict accelerates at China-Russia summit IMF ‘inflation worsens’
As the economic alliance between China and Russia is strengthened, the trade confrontation with the United States is accelerating, and the IMF published a report that ‘inflation may worsen’.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report that new trade barriers and escalating wars could worsen inflation amid an optimistic economic outlook.
Unlike the 'denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula' by the 'Washington Declaration' with the US Biden administration, the Yoon Seok-yeol regime pressures China with 'denuclearization of North Korea' and 'possibility of arming South Korea with nuclear weapons' and begins to pose a security threat to the economic alliance strategy between China and Russia. did.
“Raising tariffs could trigger retaliatory responses, increase costs, and harm both business profitability and consumer well-being,” the IMF World Economic Outlook report said on the 14th.
Regarding the reason for choosing China for his first overseas trip in his fifth term, Russian President Putin said, "The decision was made by the unprecedented level of partnership between the two countries." Regarding cooperation on international issues, he said, "Russia and China do not follow the rules-based order created by the West." We will not accept it,” he told China’s Xinhua News Agency on the 15th.
Regarding President Putin's two-day state visit, he said, "The visit will start in Beijing and visit the northeastern city of Harbin, where the China-Russia trade fair is being held." “They are likely to seek more help from China, which is buying large quantities of Russian oil and providing technology to help Russia endure economic isolation and maintain its war machine,” the New York Times said on the 15th. .
“Somewhat worryingly, progress toward our inflation target has stalled somewhat since the beginning of the year,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist and author of the IMF report, in a note accompanying the report. “Oil prices have recently been affected by geopolitical tensions.” “Further trade restrictions on Chinese exports could also push goods inflation higher, as inflation in services and services remains stubbornly high.”
On the 14th, the US Biden administration announced a policy of significantly increasing tariffs on Chinese imports, ranging from electric vehicle (EV) batteries, computer chips, and medical products to a four-fold increase in tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
Reuters said, “Biden will maintain the tariffs imposed by his Republican predecessor, former President Trump, but will strengthen other tariffs, such as quadrupling tariffs on electric vehicles to more than 100% and doubling tariffs on semiconductors to 50%,” the White House said. “This measure affects $18 billion worth of Chinese imports, including steel, aluminum, semiconductors, electric vehicles, key minerals, solar cells, and cranes,” it was reported on the 14th.
Regarding the '4B figure' for electric vehicles, Reuters said, "Because the United States rarely imports electric vehicles from China, it will have a political impact rather than a practical impact," and added, "By courting American voters who give low marks to Biden's economic policies, “We risked a confrontation with China,” he said.
President Biden's 'quadruple announcement' was made in a speech to unions and companies in the White House Rose Garden, saying, "American workers can work and compete better than anyone else as long as the competition is fair, but it hasn't been fair for too long," and "We want China “We will not allow it to flood our market,” he said.
Reuters said, “China warned of immediate retaliation, and the Commerce Department announced that China opposes the U.S. tariff increase and will take steps to protect its own interests.” Data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that in 2023, imports of goods from China amounted to $427 billion. “We exported $148 billion to the world’s second-largest economy, a trade gap that has become an increasingly sensitive topic in Washington as the U.S.-China trade structure has persisted for decades.”
Regarding the IMF's 'ominous prediction', the NYT said, "The prediction came as policymakers from around the world began arriving in Washington to attend the IMF and World Bank spring meetings," and added, "The IMF said a year ago that fundamental 'turbulence' and numerous risks were Although the global economy has shown robust performance over the past year, defying predictions of a recession, price pressures have not been sufficiently suppressed and concerns remain that new trade barriers will be erected amid anxiety over the recent surge in cheap exports from China. “He said, highlighting the new trade barriers.
“Such geopolitical shocks could have a negative impact on global economic growth by complicating the ongoing disinflation process and delaying central bank policy easing,” the IMF report said.
NYT said, “The fight against inflation in the United States has begun to reach a stalemate,” and “The pace of price rises is slowing down compared to before, but it is still higher than the Fed’s target of 2%, and the consumer price index (CPI) in March is 2% for food and Excluding fuel prices, it rose 3.8% compared to the previous year, raising doubts among economists about whether the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates this year.”
“The most prominent threats to the inflation outlook are concerns about a possible surge in food and energy prices due to regional conflict,” the IMF said. “It is a wild card that could disrupt supply chains and impede global economic progress,” the report said.
During his visit to China last month, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken warned that the U.S. would blacklist Chinese banks that support Russia's war effort, and Russian media reported earlier this year that Chinese financial institutions had already started to block Russian companies in preparation for secondary sanctions. The NYT reported that it announced a reduction in transactions with companies.
The NYT said, “Analysts most likely had the biggest impact on the year-on-year decline in trade between Russia and China in March, which was the first decline in trade between China and Russia since January 2021.”
Regarding the Xi Jinping-Putin China-Russia summit in Beijing, the NYT said, “The leaders will try to show off their strength and solidarity to show other countries that there is an alternative to the United States and the U.S.-led global system.” “We regard it as the architect of a new world order, and have been promoting multilateral groups with developing countries such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) to balance the West,” he said.
Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yeol's China meeting on the 13th, aimed at the China-Russia summit, followed Secretary Blinken's visit to Beijing on the 26th of last month, confronting the Democratic Party's 'denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula' through 'denuclearization of North Korea' and putting pressure on China with Republican-style 'nuclear arming of South Korea'. It appears that
Democratic President Biden included 'denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula' in a joint statement at the summit with President Yoon Seok-yeol, and President Yoon separately used 'denuclearization of North Korea' at the EU summit, and ahead of the US presidential election, the Republican Party called for 'withdrawal of US troops from Korea'. Biden's Democratic Party's attempt to weaken the 'Security-Economy Separation Negotiation' system is focusing on Northeast Asia with the 'strategy to turn South Korea's nuclear armament under pressure'.
President Yoon and President Biden concluded the 'Washington Declaration' in April last year by saying, "The two leaders will firmly pursue dialogue and diplomacy without preconditions with North Korea as a means of advancing the common goal of achieving complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula." > and specified ‘denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.’
<Cho Tae-yeol’s ‘mutual cooperation on North Korea’s denuclearization’ and Wang Yi’s ‘double-suspension trust priority for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula’ collapse, May 14, 2024>