Trump's polls are ahead of 'negative', 'job approval rating' reverses, 'economy' plummets
As Trump's polls are ahead of 'negative', his 'job approval rating' has completely reversed, and 'economy', which is the top priority of his supporters, has begun to plummet.
Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican polling expert, wrote in a New York Times article that "his (Trump's) poll numbers on the economy have started to decline, and his job approval rating has reversed," and that "Trump views his job differently from other voters, and that's one reason his poll numbers are falling."
Anderson said, "He believes he has the leeway to act big and boldly, create a little turbulence, and assert himself in Washington and around the world, and raise prices a little bit in the short term, but when I dig into Trump's polling data, it seems that American voters' will to the president is narrowing more than Trump sees it." The Republican pollster said, “Voters knew full well what Trump would do in a second term, and they voted for him anyway,” and attributed the sharp decline in Trump’s approval ratings to his policies, which were completely contrary to the polls immediately after his inauguration.
Here’s an excerpt from his op-ed:
I asked American voters how much they thought President Trump should prioritize various policy actions. At the top of the list? “Reduce the cost of living.” Immigration measures were also high, which explains why my polling shows Trump’s approval ratings for immigrant jobs remain positive despite his approval ratings in other areas.
In contrast, “passing additional tariffs” and “laying off a large number of federal employees,” which have been making headlines in recent weeks, are way down the list. Only one in four voters think each of these should be “one of their top priorities.”
The numbers are even stronger among Trump supporters, but less than half of them say mass layoffs or tariffs are their top priorities. Instead, Trump’s priorities for voters have generally been the same as those of voters: lowering the cost of living, deporting illegal immigrants, and securing the southern border.
While dramatically increasing deportations or changing the government’s approach to transgender rights may not have been top priorities for all swing voters, Trump has made clear what he intends to do on these fronts, and it’s notable that at least some of his moves in these areas have proven quite popular.
On the economy, too, Trump’s actions are likely to come as little surprise to voters.
According to my polling, more than 80 percent of voters believe Trump would impose new tariffs if he were president, a figure that’s far higher than many of his other policies.
But even if Americans knew what they would gain from tariffs and such, that still leaves open the question of whether they voted for him because of them or in spite of them.
While Republicans have been advocating for a smaller government for decades, tariffs have long been a distant second to their wish list. The polling data shows that Americans are increasingly anxious to get what they feel they have been promised: a more stable economy with a lower cost of living.
President Trump has taken on the character of “shooting the damn torpedoes and going full steam ahead.”
Pushing for a major overhaul of the federal government and a breakdown of the global trading system is clearly something Trump has long wanted to do, and he feels he has a mission to pursue after the November election.
But his poll numbers on the economy have begun to decline, and his job approval ratings have flipped. As a pollster who evaluates political performance and policy influence, I find myself constantly wondering what exactly Americans elected Trump for.
This question reflects a central mystery that has been revealed so far during Trump’s presidency: Are his actions in line with what voters want him to do, or is he just doing his job by making America a villain, polls be damned? Did people want Trump to rebuild the government and derail the global financial order, or did they just want cheap groceries?
How people see and judge Trump will determine not only his ultimate victory or defeat in office, but also the likelihood that the Republican Party will secure its policy agenda for the next few years.
Trump seems to view his job differently from other voters, which is one reason why his poll numbers are falling.
He firmly believes that he was elected to return to Washington as a disruptor, and that he has been elected with far more experience and effectiveness than he did in his first term.
He sees himself as reinvigorating the Oval Office after four years of a weak Joe Biden (Democrat).
In that regard, he believes he has the leeway to act big and boldly, create a little turbulence, assert himself in Washington and around the world, and drive up prices a little in the short term.
Trump says all of this is about solidifying America’s position in the long run.
Trump feels that America sent him to Washington on a mission. He has at various points branded himself an agent of chaos and an antidote. Some of Trump’s core supporters will cheer when he takes a bullish approach to institutions, and there is evidence that voters are willing to give him some leeway in his unorthodox approach to many of the problems they see as facing us.
But the No. 1 issue in America is still the No. 1 issue, and there are real political risks in asking voters to smile and endure today’s checkout for the promise of a better tomorrow.
Past presidents have led their parties to electoral defeats by addressing the wrong issues at the wrong times.
In 2004, George W. Bush (R-Wyo.) won reelection because he was trying to make America safer and win the war on terror.
Bush used the political capital he thought he had earned to push for Social Security reform, sending the Republican Party into two years of ruin, and Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) became Speaker of the House.
In 2008, Barack Obama (D-CA) was elected to address the economic disaster of the financial crisis. But he pushed for health care reform, and although he secured the Affordable Care Act, the Democrats suffered a monumental defeat in the 2010 midterm elections.
Ultimately, just as Trump is preparing voters to accept short-term pain for the promise of long-term gain, his party may be willing to accept short-term political pain if it believes it can secure a new, long-lasting global economic framework and a dismantling of the bureaucratic state.
And just as Democrats now believe that the politics of preserving the Affordable Care Act are on their side, Republicans may think that voters will ultimately support their views once the first wave of tariffs and government chaos has passed. But this would be a risky gamble if Trump’s agenda is carried out almost entirely through executive power and public opinion shifts control of the government to his opponents.
The AC Act was so difficult for Republicans to uproot because it was a law enacted by Congress, and many of Trump’s actions were the product of pen and telephone.
Contributor Kristin Soltis Anderson is a Republican polling expert and author of Selfie Voting: Where Millennials Are Leading America (and How Republicans Can Catch Up).
Here are the results of professional polling in the United States in March:
* Ipsos (Reuters)
Conducted March 10-11, positive 44%, negative 52%
* Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategy (NBC)
Conducted March 6-10, positive 47%, negative 51%
* RMG Research
Conducted March 5-12, positive 54%, negative 44%
* Echelon Insights
Conducted March 9-12, positive 49%, negative 48%
* AtlasIntel
Conducted March 6-11, positive 47%, negative 52%
* Quantas Insights (Trend Politics)
Conducted March 9-11, positive 50%, negative 47%
* YouGov Economist
Conducted March 8-10, positive 48%, negative 49%
* TIPP Insights American Workers' Alliance (Republican Party donor)
Conducted March 3-5, positive 43% negative 48%