National Intelligence Service ‘estimates circumstances of support to Russia’ Biden administration ‘prevents accidental collisions’ gap
The National Intelligence Service reported to the National Assembly its 'presumed diagnosis of Russian support' after American experts made an 'impossible diagnosis', and the Ministry of National Defense annulled the ROK and US Defense Minister's agreement on 'use of the inter-Korean military agreement to prevent accidental collisions' as a security document. There was a gap with the Eden administration.
The ROK and U.S. defense ministers signed a joint statement in 2021, "Agreeing on the effectiveness of the inter-Korean military agreement to prevent accidental collisions," and on the 13th of last month in Seoul, Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said, "We will further strengthen cooperation with the U.S. Early Warning Satellite Information Sharing System (SEWS) in preparation for North Korean missile threats." “They issued a joint statement.
In a response to the National Assembly on the 23rd, the National Intelligence Service said, "At the time of the meeting, President Putin publicly expressed his will to support the launch vehicle itself, and after the meeting, North Korea provided blueprints and data related to the 12th launch vehicle to Russia, and Russia provided analysis results. “Judging from the confirmation, there was an answer from the National Intelligence Service that they believe there was help from Russia,” announced Rep. Yoo Sang-beom (People Power Party).
Rep. Yoon Kun-young (Democratic Party) responded to the question, "Has anything concrete been confirmed other than the circumstances of receiving help from Russia?" and announced, "(The National Intelligence Service) responded that nothing specifically has been confirmed."
“I don’t think any additional Russian technology was used in this launch,” said Van Van Diepen, a U.S. missile expert and former principal deputy assistant secretary of state for international security and non-proliferation affairs. “Kim Jong-un The State Department told the Voice of America (VOA) on the 21st, “From the time that Putin met in Russia (September 13th) until now, there would not have been enough time for Russia’s new technology to be applied.”
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Van Diepen said, “I don’t think there has been much change between the last launch and this one,” adding, “If you look at North Korea’s past record, it would not have needed the advice of Russian scientists for this launch to be successful.” “I have the ability to do it,” he said.
Joseph Dempsey, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in the UK, said, “The second attempt to launch a new satellite failed, but was more successful than the first attempt.” He added, “North Korea is making this third attempt regardless of any additional external assistance.” “There is a possibility that we could have identified and resolved the remaining issues through ,” he told VOA, saying it was ‘self-resolved.’
“What is important is that we should not assume that all of North Korea’s development is due to Russian support,” said Masao Dahlgren, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Missile Defense Project. “North Korea’s own development is progressing rapidly.”
CSIS researcher Dahlgren continued, “It is important to put pressure on Russia (military cooperation with North Korea), but it is not just Russia’s problem. “We are even more concerned about North Korea’s own technological development,” he said. “North Korea is seeking new ways to evade sanctions by building missile technologies with their own scientific base, and is seeking to fund these efforts.” “We are looking for cash,” he told VOA.
At a briefing on the 22nd, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mariya Zakharova denied the suspicions that North Korea launched a satellite with Russian support, calling it a retaliatory measure for South Korea's suspension of the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement, and saying, "The situation will worsen."
In response, the U.S. State Department commented on the 22nd, saying, “Expanding military cooperation between North Korea and Russia challenges regional stability, prolongs Russia’s atrocities in Ukraine, and weakens the global non-proliferation regime,” adding, “Weapons transfers are part of a series of UN Security Council resolutions.” “We will continue to actively raise such arms trade at the United Nations together with our allies and partners,” he said.
A U.S. State Department spokesperson continued, “The Inter-Korean Military Agreement (CMA) has helped ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but North Korea’s failure to honor this agreement has created untenable challenges for South Korea’s security.” “With South Korea’s decision to suspend effectiveness, surveillance and reconnaissance activities on the South Korean side of the Military Demarcation Line will be restored, improving South Korea’s ability to monitor threats from North Korea,” he wrote in ‘Korean Security.’ ‘Restoration of surveillance and reconnaissance within the Military Demarcation Line.’ expressed as
Minister of National Defense Shin Won-sik said in a joint statement with U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin and the ROK-U.S. Security Council (SCM) on November 13, “The two ministers agreed to use the U.S. early warning satellite information sharing system to improve the alliance’s detection capabilities in preparation for advanced North Korean missile threats. “We have decided to further strengthen cooperation on the Shared Early Warning System (SEWS),” he announced.
The 2021 SCM joint statement by the ROK and U.S. defense secretaries said, “The two ministers said that the various measures being pursued by the military authorities of South and North Korea to implement the ‘9/19 Military Agreement’ will ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula, reduce the risk of war, and prevent accidental clashes in the border area. It was evaluated that the conditions for . He confirmed, “We agreed that the implementation of the ‘9/19 Military Agreement’ is effectively contributing to preventing accidental conflicts on the Korean Peninsula.”
The Seoul SCM joint statement from November this year specifically said, “The two Ministers agreed that diplomatic efforts are the most desirable solution to ensure peace on the Korean Peninsula, and reaffirmed that they will continue to work closely together to achieve this.” “In addition, we agreed that these diplomatic efforts should be supported by the strong and reliable combined defense posture of the ROK and U.S. defense authorities,” the statement said.
SCM continued, “The two ministers (omitted) agreed to strengthen the alliance’s deterrence and response posture and continue to promote stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the region. (omitted) The two Ministers noted that the SCM plays a pivotal role in the continued development of the ROK-U.S. alliance as a key consultative body that not only provides strategic guidance to the ROK-U.S. combined forces, but also discusses and confirms alliance-level commitments and pending issues. The Korean Ministry of National Defense voluntarily announced that ‘SCM is the backbone’.