White House ‘Troop Movement’ National Intelligence Service ‘Intelligence’ Revised, ‘Long-Range Missiles Not Possible’ in Ukraine
While the White House stated ‘3,000 North Korean troops moving to eastern Russia’ and ‘Long-Range Missile Support to Ukraine’, excluding ‘troop dispatch’ and ‘participation in war’, and while Rand Corporation officially stated ‘South Korea’s support of Ukraine’s offensive weapons’, Korean media reported it as ‘confirmation of troop dispatch’.
The US revised the report from the original ‘press release’ of the South Korean National Intelligence Service to '1500' ‘National Assembly Intelligence Outlook’ on the 23rd, and the White House seems to have excluded the ‘information’ and announced ‘3,000 troop movement’ on that day.
White House National Security Adviser John Kirby said in a regular briefing on the 23rd, “We assess that between early and mid-October, North Korea moved at least 3,000 soldiers into eastern Russia. We assess that these soldiers traveled by ship from the Wonsan area in North Korea to Vladivostok, Russia. The soldiers then traveled onward to multiple Russian military training sites in eastern Russia where they are currently undergoing training.”
VoA reported on the 23rd that Kirby said [recording], “We assess that between early and mid-October, North Korea moved at least 3,000 soldiers into eastern Russia. We assessed that these soldiers traveled by ship from the Wonsan area in North Korea to Vladivostok, Russia. The soldiers then traveled onward to multiple Russian military training sites in eastern Russia where they are currently undergoing training.”
VOA then reported that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters in Rome, Italy, that day, “There is evidence that there are DPRK troops in Russia,” and that “we still have to wait and see what exactly they are doing. We will provide specific details later.”
Bruce Bennett, a senior researcher at RAND Corporation, told VOA that day, “The South Korean government should review its existing support plan for Ukraine and send a clear message to both North Korea and Russia by providing lethal weapons,” clearly stating that the hidden strategy of the hard-line conservative strategy group in the Republican Party is “South Korea’s support of offensive weapons for Ukraine.”
On the 24th, Minister of National Defense Kim Yong-hun said at the National Assembly, “What has been identified so far is mainly missiles and shells,” and “The shells are close to 10 million, and the troops are expected to be dispatched in the amount of about 12,000, including special forces, engineers, and artillery.”
Minister Kim then stated in the National Assembly regarding the troop support, "Until the Putin-Kim Jong-un summit last September, we had focused on providing weapons, but starting in October, troops began to be dispatched, and (the summit) was a turning point."
Regarding the Kirby briefing, Yonhap News reported from Washington, "We don't know yet whether the North Korean military will engage in combat with the Russian military, but it is certainly a very concerning possibility," adding, "After the North Korean military completes its training, it could move to western Russia and engage the Ukrainian military."
The Yonhap News Agency continued, “When asked whether the deployment of North Korean troops would allow the US to use long-range weapons to strike inside Russia in Ukraine, he responded that he did not yet know the exact nature of the North Korean troops deployment and that “there has been no change in the president’s policy.” Earlier, in Rome, Italy, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia for the first time as a US government official, saying, “There is evidence that DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) troops are in Russia.”
The South Korean National Intelligence Service reported at a meeting with the National Assembly Intelligence Committee that day that the number of North Korean troops who have moved to Russia so far is around 3,000 and that the total number of troops deployed will reach around 10,000 by December.
The National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported to the National Assembly in secret ahead of the White House announcements that were made sequentially on the 23rd, and the opposition party member’s announcement changed the phrase from “confirmation of the decision to deploy” to “intelligence” and “expectation” by saying, “The NIS presented fairly well=founded intelligence that approximately 10,000 troops will be deployed,” and “there was a report that approximately 10,000 troops are expected to be deployed around December.”
The National Assembly announcement on this day was revised from the “understanding of the decision to deploy 12,000 North Korean troops and 4 brigades” that the NIS had previously disclosed in a press release.
Accordingly, it appears that the US excluded the information from the NIS’s initial “confirmation of deployment information” and announced it as “movement of 3,000 troops.”
Intelligence is “unprocessed information acquired prior to deployment,” and when it is evaluated, it becomes “available information,” and the government’s normal procedure is to comprehensively judge the truth of various information from various organizations based on “evaluated and interpreted knowledge,” and determine the truth and facts, and “deployment” corresponds to “deployment to the front lines.”
The press release from the National Intelligence Service on the 18th, titled “NIS Confirms North Korean Special Forces’ Participation in Russo-Ukrainian War,” stated, “While closely monitoring the movements of the North Korean military, we detected North Korea transporting North Korean special forces to Russian regions via Russian naval transport ships from the 8th to the 13th, confirming the start of the North Korean military’s participation in the war. The North Korean soldiers dispatched to Russia are currently stationed at Russian military bases in the Far East, including Vladivostok, Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk, and Blagoveshchensk, and are expected to be deployed to the front lines as soon as they complete their adaptation training.”
The “confirmation of the start of the war” was clearly stated, but it was downgraded to “intelligence outlook” just four days later. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said at a press conference in Estonia on the 22nd that he was “coordinating with the South Korean government to confirm the facts regarding the South Korean intelligence agency’s announcement of “North Korean troops being dispatched to Russia,” and that he had spoken with President Yoon Seok-yeol the day before and that he “requested President Yoon (to send experts), and the President said he would send experts to brief the North Atlantic Council (NAC).”
Secretary General Rutte then said that the South Korean delegation’s visit would be “early next week,” and that “after that, we will confirm whether North Korea is actually supporting Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine,” but it appears that the White House coordinated with South Korea and made the announcement in advance.
On the 21st, the Office of President Yoon Seok-yeol announced in a press release regarding the phone call between President Yoon and Secretary General Rutte, “Secretary General Rutte requested that the Korean government send a delegation to NATO for more detailed information sharing,” and “President Yoon promised to promptly dispatch a delegation for information sharing and take measures to activate security cooperation between Korea, Ukraine, and NATO.”
Prior to this, the National Intelligence Service announced in a press release on the 18th, “Starting on the 8th, North Korea began moving special forces for the dispatch of troops to Russia,” and “Four landing ships and three escort ships belonging to the Russian Pacific Fleet transported approximately 1,500 North Korean special forces from the areas near Chongjin, Hamhung, and Musudan to Vladivostok, Russia during this period, and a second transport operation is scheduled to take place soon,” showing a discrepancy with the White House’s “confirmation of the movement of 3,000 people.”
The National Intelligence Service’s press release on that day stated, “We confirmed on the 8th that approximately 1,500 North Korean special forces soldiers had begun being dispatched to the battlefield,” and “We have learned that North Korea recently decided to dispatch a total of 12,000 troops from four brigades, including special forces, to the war in Ukraine,” announcing it as “understanding North Korea’s decision.”