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Trump appoints Ukraine DMZ Korean War ceasefire model as ‘peace’ envoy

김종찬안보 2024. 11. 29. 15:56
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Trump appoints Ukraine DMZ Korean War ceasefire model as ‘peace’ envoy

The Trump administration has appointed a Ukraine ‘peace’ envoy to apply the Korean War ceasefire model to the DMZ (demilitarized zone) in the Ukraine war.
On the 27th, US President-elect Trump appointed former Army Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, co-chairman of the security team at the Institute for First Policy Studies, a policy research institute close to Trump, as the newly established special envoy to Ukraine.
In an announcement posted on his Truth Social account, Trump said, “He’s been with me from the beginning! Together, we’ll secure peace through strength and make America and the world safe again!” The Yomiuri reported on the 28th that Chairman Kelos of the Priorities Policy Research Institute of the America First MAGA announced in April a plan for peace in the Ukraine war, including (1) preventing further Russian invasion after the peace agreement, (2) making participation in peace talks a condition for strengthening Ukraine’s defense, and (3) postponing Ukraine’s application for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for a long period of time in order to allow Russia to participate in the talks.
It appears that Trump’s “priority policy” mediation plan is to establish a “demilitarized zone” by setting up a front line similar to the Ukraine War, while including “non-membership in NATO,” which was the primary condition for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, at the core of the mediation plan.
The newspaper reported that Senator J.D. Vance, the vice president-elect of Trump’s presidential campaign, officially mentioned a plan to establish a “demilitarized zone” (DMZ) in September to stop hostilities in Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine. The common argument of Special Envoy Kellogg and Vice President-elect Vance is similar to the way the Korean War led to an armistice.

The three-year war in Ukraine was similar to the Korean War (1950-53) in that fierce fighting took place for the first year, but after that, the front line did not move and became a stalemate. The US and the Soviet Union were surrounded by nuclear powers, and the fear of heightened tensions made the front line more intense. The US and the Soviet Union began armistice talks in 1951. Similar to Ukraine’s opposition to the armistice due to its ‘obstinate insistence on NATO membership,’ the Syngman Rhee government pushed China out of the armistice talks by ‘advancing northward to unify’ and ‘allowing Chinese anti-communist prisoners of war to be transferred to Taiwan.’ As a result, civilian casualties increased due to fierce bombing for two years, and two years later, in July 1953, an armistice agreement was signed that drew a military demarcation line around the front line near the 38th parallel and created a DMZ.

The Yomiuri reported that, “In an interview with Fox News this month, Ukrainian President Zelensky softened his stance from his previous claim to ‘reclaim all territory,’ saying he was ‘prepared to diplomatically retake’ the southern Crimean Peninsula occupied by Russia.” However, he reiterated his distrust of President Putin, saying, “A ceasefire would only give Russia time to rearm,” and the dominant view is that even if a ceasefire is reached, it would buy Russia time to prepare for a ‘reinvasion,’ so the fate of the conflict that has continued for three years remains uncertain.”

The AP reported on the 28th that “Kellogg, one of the architects of the Trump administration’s ‘America First’ national security agenda, will take on the role as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its third year next February.” “The 80-year-old retired Army lieutenant general has long been Trump’s top defense adviser, served as Vice President Mike Pence’s national security adviser, served as National Security Council chief of staff, and served as Trump’s acting national security adviser after Michael Flynn resigned.” Kellogg, who is co-chairman of the Center for American Security at the American First Policy Institute, has already written several policies for the group’s policy booklet.

The  AP said, “Like the Heritage Foundation’s ‘Project 2025,’ this book is designed to lay out Trump’s national security agenda and avoid the mistakes Trump made in 2016 when he entered the White House largely unprepared.”

In April, Chairman Kellogg announced the ‘America First Peace Strategy,’ saying, “Ending the Russia-Ukraine war requires strong America First leadership to secure a peace agreement and immediately end hostilities between the two warring parties.”

Rep. Michael Waltz (D-Fla.), Trump’s nominee for national security adviser, tweeted on the 27th, “Keith has dedicated his life to protecting our great country and to peacefully resolving the war in Ukraine.” Kellogg has worked on Trump’s policies since Trump’s first term and was one of the administration officials present during a July 2019 phone call between Trump and Zelensky in which Trump urged Ukraine to investigate the Bidens.

The AP reported that “Kellogg later said he had no concerns, but the call was at the heart of the first of two House impeachment cases against Trump, both of which the Senate acquitted him of,” adding that “On Jan. 6, 2021, hours before a pro-Trump mob stormed the U.S. Capitol, Kellogg, then Vice President Pence’s national security adviser, listened in on a heated phone call in which Trump told the vice president to object to or delay the congressional certification of Biden’s victory, and he later told House investigators that Trump told Pence something along the lines of, ‘You’re not strong enough to make that call.’” In response to the deadlock in the Ukraine war, the Biden administration began urging Ukraine to increase its military size as soon as possible, including by conscripting more troops and revising its mobilization laws to allow conscription of those under the age of 18.

President Zelensky told reporters at NATO headquarters on the 14th, “The government has intelligence that 10,000 troops from North Korea are preparing to join the Russian army fighting against their country,” and “A third country that jumps into hostilities will turn the conflict into a ‘world war. ’”